ETF capital flow and chain signals boost XRP towards $2.80 in the coming weeks

Technical indicators and onchain data all point to a potential bullish scenario for XRP (XRP), with a target of $2.80 within reach. Since the low below $2 on September 21, XRP has regained over 21% in value, driven by increasing participation from institutional investors through spot ETF products.

Capital injection from ETFs lays the foundation for a rally

Demand from US spot XRP ETFs is becoming the main market driver. Over nine consecutive days since launch, these products have seen continuous inflows, totaling $2.81 million as of Thursday, bringing the total accumulated capital to $643 million. According to data from SoSoValue, the total net assets of XRP ETFs have exceeded $767 million.

Approval of spot XRP ETFs from major asset management firms like Franklin Templeton and Grayscale, along with the upcoming launch of the 21Shares ETF on Monday, indicates a level of sanction from mainstream financial institutions. These signs often signal confidence in the long-term outlook of the asset, paving the way for a significant rally later on.

Shrinking supply – bullish signals from long-term holders

Strong evidence of sustained demand is reflected in the significant reduction of XRP supply on exchanges. Over the past 60 days, data from Glassnode shows XRP balances on exchanges have decreased by more than 45%, from 3.95 billion tokens on September 21 to 2.6 billion tokens currently.

This trend reflects the movement of tokens off exchanges, a common strategy among investors aiming to hold assets long-term. Selling pressure has correspondingly decreased, opening the door for buying power to take over the market in the next technical phase.

Continuous green spot taker CVD – balance of power shifting toward buyers

The (CVD) (cumulative volume delta) for spot takers over the past 90 days shows a clear turning point. Until the end of October, selling pressure dominated, with XRP hitting a low of $1.58 on October 10. However, in recent weeks, CVD has turned green and remained positive, indicating buy orders outnumber sell orders.

This phenomenon is not coincidental – it shows that retail (taker) traders are actively buying, a typical precursor to strong recoveries seen in previous phases.

Convergence chart: Bull pennant and V-shape targeting $2.70-$2.80

Technical analysis across multiple timeframes reveals classic bullish market patterns. On the four-hour chart, XRP is trading within a bull pennant – a strong continuation pattern suggesting a price breakout upon full confirmation. The target for this pattern is set at $2.80, representing a 25% increase from the current price.

On the daily chart, price action has formed a V-shaped recovery pattern since early November. To complete this pattern, XRP needs to break above the supply zone from $2.30 to $2.63, where key moving averages (SMA) are concentrated. If successful, the XRP/USD pair will aim for the neckline at $2.70, a 23% increase from the current level.

Technical momentum returns: RSI rebounds and MACD turns green

The (RSI) has surged from an oversold level of 23 on September 21 to 55, reflecting a clear recovery in buying momentum. Notably, the (MACD) (moving average convergence divergence) has just completed a bullish crossover, with increasing green bars signaling rising buying volume.

Breaking above the 20-day EMA at $2.20 could open the door for buyers to push the price toward the upper boundary of the descending channel at $2.70. The combination of these indicators creates a consistent technical picture, all-in with bullish signals from onchain data and institutional flows.

In summary, XRP is supported by three strong pillars: institutional ETF demand, shrinking supply from long-term holders, and technical confirmation via bull pennant and V-shape patterns. These conditions suggest a high likelihood that XRP will advance toward $2.70-$2.80 in the coming weeks.