Recently, greetings have been especially frequent: "What do you think about Bitcoin's current choppy market? Can 83,000 hold?" Someone even directly posted a chart of the pattern: "Is this a falling flag?" After reviewing the market, I have to be honest — the risk level of this wave is much greater than most people imagine. To avoid beating around the bush, I’ll lay out my hardcore view today; those who listen carefully can save themselves a lot of detours.

Starting with the basics, for new entrants: what exactly is a falling flag? Simply put, it’s a continuation pattern during a downtrend. The characteristics are very clear: first, a steep sell-off (called the flagpole), then a slight upward but narrow sideways consolidation (called the flag), with volume gradually decreasing during this process. Once a sudden surge in volume breaks below the lower boundary, it’s highly likely the price will continue to fall.

Matching this to the current market, let’s analyze step by step — the flagpole has already formed. From the high of 126,000 all the way down to around 80,000, the retracement has exceeded 40%. To be blunt, healthy bull market corrections are usually within 30%, and over 40% generally signals a trend reversal. What’s more troubling is that a top divergence appeared last July, and by December, a classic triple top pattern emerged — two warning signals stacked together, giving the market two early alerts. Unfortunately, too many people are still immersed in the illusion that "the bull market isn’t over yet."

The most critical point is this: after the weekly main upward trendline at 93,500 was broken, there was not even a decent rebound — just a back-and-forth below that level. This is no small matter — once the weekly trendline is broken, it usually signals something can be discussed, but if there’s no immediate rebound, that’s a very ominous sign.