You guys are amazing! A while ago, I made over 500 bucks just by lying in wait with the event contract, but I got greedy and chased the high, cutting the profit down to just over 200. Now it’s even more awkward—only 180 bucks left to survive. Recently, the most asked question in the backend is “Can I still play if the odds change?” As someone who’s been through the pitfalls, today I’ll open up and share some experiences—no nonsense, just insights.

To put it simply, why do the odds change so frequently? It’s not the exchange targeting you.

Many people see the odds fluctuate and feel like they’ve been “cut,” but in reality, there’s a complete market logic behind it. Once you understand it thoroughly, you won’t panic blindly:

The first reason is “voting” with funds. When a large number of people bet on a certain direction simultaneously, the platform must adjust the odds to balance risk. For example, if there are many bullish bets, the odds for the upward movement will be pushed down, preventing one side from losing everything. It sounds simple, but the truth is—most of the opportunities that people are optimistic about are no longer worth much.

The second reason is the elimination of information gaps. When an event is about to happen or new information suddenly emerges, the odds react very quickly. For instance, rumors about policies or data leaks—those high odds that looked attractive before—shrink in an instant. Want to pick up a bargain at this point? That’s just chasing the last straw.

The third and most tricky factor is emotions messing with the market. Remember that HBO documentary about Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity? The evidence clearly pointed to Peter Todd, but the community stubbornly believed another answer just because “that’s what we wanted.” As a result, the odds for the less popular side became especially tempting, and a bunch of people rushed in. What you thought was “picking up a high odds bargain” was actually an emotional trap.

Odds changing doesn’t mean you can’t play; the key is not to play recklessly.

I’ve seen too many people fall into pits after odds shift, mainly due to two misconceptions. First is chasing high—when the odds drop, they immediately think an opportunity has appeared, but then they chase higher and higher, getting caught. In fact, quite the opposite—when odds fall, it often indicates that risk has already been priced in. Entering at this point is essentially gambling against smart money.