#美国贸易赤字状况 Federal Reserve Policy Roadmap: Understanding the True Intent Behind Economic Data

This Wednesday's three key events are about to unfold, which will directly determine the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and subsequently influence the market's risk appetite.

**PPI and Initial Jobless Claims Data (Released Thursday)**

Producer Price Index (PPI) is an important early indicator of inflation. If PPI data shows a slowdown in production-side inflation, it often signals that consumer-side pressures will also ease, which is a positive signal for asset prices. Also pay attention to initial jobless claims data—this indicator directly reflects the health of the employment market. If claims continue to rise, it indicates the economy is cooling down, providing the Fed with ample reason to cut interest rates.

**Interpretation of the Fed's Beige Book (Friday)**

The Beige Book is the Fed's regular survey of the economic conditions across the country, and its wording is highly market-signalistic. If the language leans toward "robust" and "inflationary pressures," it sends a hawkish signal, which can suppress the performance of risk assets like BTC and ETH; conversely, if it emphasizes "slowing growth" and "rising uncertainties," a dovish tone favors a rebound in risk assets.

**Complete Policy Expectation Chain**

Downward CPI + slowing PPI + weak employment data—this combination can fully support expectations of rate cuts and greatly stimulate market risk appetite. The opposite scenario is equally critical—if all data surpass expectations positively, the pessimistic narrative of "maintaining high interest rates longer" will resurface, suppressing gains across all risk assets.