Bitcoin in the critical zone: how $84,000 became the bears' last line of defense?

The situation is tense. Bitcoin dropped to a low of $80,000 last week, but somehow managed to bounce back in the $84,000 zone and finished the week at $86,850. Now, with the price stabilizing at $90.66K, the question arises — is this the start of a rebound or a final exhale before a fall?

What is driving the market now?

Street sell-offs have become so intense that the daily RSI has fallen into an extreme oversold zone. The bulls seem to be out of sync. But here’s an interesting point: after such a crash, oversold conditions usually indicate an approaching mechanical rebound. Analysts expect that at least Monday will be a recovery day — the market simply cannot fall without a breather.

Considering the scale of the sell-off at the end of last week, experts hope that short covering will not be so aggressive. However, this does not guarantee that all dangers are behind.

Transitional levels: from defense to attack

The battle for $84,000 has already taken place, and the bulls won it, but this is a short victory. More importantly, what will happen next:

If defending $84,000: The price should target resistance at $91,400 (Fibonacci level 0.236). Breaking through this level will be preceded by a significant struggle, as a more serious obstacle is located higher — a high-volume node around $94,000, which analysts consider the most likely target this week.

If the price breaks through $94,000, the next targets are $98,000, then $103,000 (Fibonacci 0.618), and finally $109,000 before the final assault on new highs at $116,500.

If $84,000 falls: This would be a bitter development for the bulls. The first line of overbought defense is at $75,000, but it will not be solid. Real support awaits at $70,000 (exactly where the expanding wedge charts close the door to further decline). Below — darkness: zone $69,000–$72,000 (high trading volume), followed by a free fall to key levels of $58,000 and the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $57,700.

Why is $70,000 the point of no return?

A few weeks ago, Bitcoin’s charts formed an expanding wedge pattern, where the upper trend line is resistance, the lower is support, diverging. This figure only reverses in one direction: down. Last week, it finally broke through, and the target of the decline is approximately $70,000. Even if this week turns into a slaughterhouse for short positions, investors still expect testing of this zone in the coming weeks.

Macro uncertainty

The US government has returned to work, but this has not helped calm the market. Over the next few weeks, economic data will arrive chaotically due to delays caused by the shutdown. The Federal Reserve balances between fighting inflation and stabilizing the labor market — no one knows exactly what decision it will make at the next meeting.

Conclusion: a lament on the cliff

Market sentiment has flipped 180 degrees. The bulls are subdued, hope for a significant rebound is fading. However, this is precisely the moment when the market often triggers a cascade of unforeseen moves. As long as the price stays above $84,000, a scenario where a rebound to $94,000 is still possible this week remains. But if this level falls — prepare for testing $70,000.