Solana's ATH Peak Was Actually A Distribution Climax: Why SOL Remains Under Pressure

Solana reached $293.31 in January—a milestone that looked like the start of explosive growth, but on-chain data tells a very different story. According to analysis from crypto researcher Ardi, that all-time high wasn’t the beginning of a bull run; it was the final exit point for major holders who had been quietly offloading positions since months earlier.

The Real Story: Distribution Started Before The January Top

The weakness in Solana’s price wasn’t random. On-chain metrics reveal that selling volume had been building steadily throughout late 2024, well before the January peak. Large wallet holders were positioning for exits long before price reached $293. This means the dramatic rally felt like a surge, but underneath, the biggest players were already heading for the doors.

After that January top, each bounce attempt failed to reclaim the high. Notably, while Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and BNB all marched to new all-time highs in 2024-2025, Solana lagged behind—a red flag often associated with institutional distribution phases.

The Retail vs. Institutional Divergence Is Telling

Here’s where it gets interesting. Cumulative delta data shows two very different narratives playing out simultaneously:

Retail wallets have remained consistently active throughout the year, with their participation actually increasing even as Solana’s price moved lower. Smaller traders are showing conviction.

Mid-sized and institutional wallets, on the other hand, have been trending downward in activity since January. The big money has been exiting.

This divergence suggests retail is accumulating while institutions distribute—a classic bear signal when the selling pressure from larger players overwhelms buying from the crowd.

Memecoin Dependency: A Double-Edged Sword For SOL

Solana’s price movements have become increasingly tied to one specific driver: the performance of its memecoin ecosystem. Projects like Cat in a Dogs World (MEW), Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT), and Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) generated explosive rallies in the latter half of 2024. The real spark came when the Official Trump ($TRUMP) token launched on Solana in January 2025, delivering astronomical returns and pushing Solana toward its peak.

But here’s the problem: that memecoin momentum has since evaporated. TRUMP and other Solana-based memes have turned lower over recent months and no longer command the trading intensity they once did. If Solana’s bullish thesis is increasingly dependent on the next viral memecoin, that’s a fragile foundation for sustained upside.

Where SOL Stands Now

At the time of writing, Solana trades at $139.81, representing a 52% decline from its January peak of $293.31. The 24-hour trading momentum shows a slight positive flutter at +1.79%, but the broader picture remains challenged by institutional distribution and retail-only participation.

The takeaway: Solana didn’t suddenly break in January. It had been breaking behind the scenes for months. The distribution phase masked itself as a bullish peak, but on-chain behavior painted the real picture all along.