XRP at Critical Juncture: Can It Recover to $17? Technical Analysts Weigh In

The cryptocurrency market has entered a period of consolidation, and XRP [XRP $2.05 / 24h change: -2.33% / Market cap: $124.37B]( finds itself at a pivotal moment that has sparked considerable debate among technical experts. Currently trading near $1.84-$2.05 range, the digital asset has become the focal point for investors trying to determine whether a sustained recovery or a deeper correction lies ahead.

Competing Narratives Around XRP’s Technical Setup

Market observers are sharply divided on where Ripple’s native token heads next. The disagreement centers on how to interpret XRP’s current position relative to its 50-week simple moving average—a metric the coin has now remained below for approximately 66 days following its October decline.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt has issued a cautionary stance, highlighting the formation of a double-top pattern on the chart. This technical structure, which typically suggests a potential reversal to the downside, could trigger a drop toward the $1.00 level if buying pressure fails to materialize. Brandt identified the neckline support around the $2.00 mark as a critical threshold that needs to hold to prevent further deterioration.

However, a contrasting perspective has gained traction among other market analysts. Steph, a recognized on-chain researcher, has drawn attention to historical precedent. His analysis reveals that whenever XRP has traded below its 50-week SMA for extended periods, it has subsequently staged dramatic recoveries. The pattern has repeated multiple times since 2018:

Historical Precedent for Explosive Rebounds:

Following XRP’s peak at $3.31 in early 2018, the token descended below the 50-week moving average and remained there for roughly 70 days. This bearish phase eventually gave way to a more than 200% rally that carried prices to $0.764 by September that year. A second instance occurred in late 2021, when a 49-day stretch below the key moving average preceded a 70% rebound in early 2022. Most significantly, the 2024-2025 period demonstrated similar dynamics—XRP spent approximately 84 days below the 50-week SMA before launching a remarkable 850% surge that pushed the token to $3.66 in July 2025.

Given that XRP has now spent roughly 66 days below the 50-week SMA, some analysts believe the coin is approaching a potential inflection point. If historical patterns hold true, an 857% rally from current levels near $1.81 would propel XRP toward approximately $17.30. Even applying a more conservative 428% gain scenario would place the token around $9.55.

Technical Indicators Suggest Potential Stabilization

Additional technical evidence supports the bullish case. Chart Nerd, another prominent analyst, has highlighted several signals emerging on the weekly timeframe that historically have preceded market lows. The relative strength index (RSI) has entered oversold territory, the MACD is showing early signs of foundation-building, and a five-wave corrective structure is in place. These converging indicators suggest that accumulated selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion.

Can Spot ETF Inflows Reignite the Rally?

Institutional interest, measured through spot XRP ETF flows, has provided some constructive signals. The investment products have recorded 32 consecutive days of inflows, with net additions reaching $18.99 million on December 17 alone. Cumulative inflows have already surpassed the $1 billion mark this week, indicating sustained institutional appetite.

However, a concerning trend has emerged recently—the rate of inflows has begun to decelerate over the past two weeks. This slowdown in new capital deployment may explain why XRP’s price action has failed to accelerate despite weeks of positive ETF momentum. For a sustained uptrend to materialize, renewed interest from institutional buyers will likely be necessary to overcome resistance at higher price levels.

The Path Forward: Patience and Confluence

The divergence in expert opinions underscores the uncertainty surrounding XRP’s next major move. While bearish technicians like Brandt point to reversal patterns and lower targets, the weight of historical evidence and current oversold conditions suggest that long-term accumulation patterns may be setting up. The convergence of extended underperformance relative to the 50-week moving average, extreme RSI readings, and multi-billion dollar ETF inflows creates a backdrop where significant upside could materialize—assuming support levels hold.

Investors monitoring XRP should remain attentive to price action around the $2.00 neckline support. A sustained break below this level would invalidate the historical recovery thesis and open the door to the $1.00 target. Conversely, renewed institutional buying pressure could reignite the conditions that have historically preceded 200%-850% rallies from similar technical setups.