#2026年比特币价格展望 $ZEC Contract Liquidation Deep Logic Analysis — The Truth from Eight Years of Trading Experience

Looking at the recent liquidation wave in $RIVER, I want to say something straightforward: liquidations are never caused by the market suddenly going crazy, but by the bomb you’ve already planted.

**Leverage is not the main culprit**
Many ask me if 100x leverage is playable. It is, but only if you understand what "real risk" means.
Actual risk = leverage multiple × your position size ratio
From another perspective: opening a 1% position with 100x leverage is equivalent to full exposure in spot trading. Think of it this way, and it becomes clear. So, the critical point isn’t how high the leverage is, but how much you bet in one go.

**Stop-loss is not giving up; it’s the price of staying in the game**
Setting a stop-loss in your account is like installing a fuse in your house — it’s there to save the entire building when it blows.
The core rule is simple: never lose more than 2% of your principal on a single trade. If you can do this, I dare say you won’t blow up even after ten years of continuous trading.

**Rolling position has its nuances**
Many misunderstand rolling positions as adding to the position repeatedly. The correct approach is: only use the profits from previous trades to add to your position, keeping risk controlled.
Example: starting with 50,000 yuan, investing 10% initially, and if you earn 10%, then use that profit to add another 10%. This method can increase safety margins by 30%, rather than doubling the risk.

**How institutions calculate position limits**
Maximum position = (Principal × 2%) ÷ (Stop-loss distance × leverage)
For example, with 50,000 yuan principal: setting a 2% stop-loss and using 10x leverage, the maximum single position is 5,000 yuan. Sounds conservative? That’s precisely the secret to staying alive and making money.

**Profit-taking should be staged**
Take profit at 20% and close one-third of the position.
At 50% profit, close another third.
The remaining position follows the 5-day moving average; if it breaks, exit.
This way, you lock in profits while leaving room for big market moves.

**All numbers are based on expected value**
This is the ultimate logic of trading:
Expected value = (Probability of winning × profit per win) - (Probability of losing × loss per loss)
As long as you keep stop-loss at 2% and take profit at 20%, even with a win rate of only 34%, you can still make steady money. Professional traders with annual returns of 400% rely on this mathematical discipline — nothing else.

**Four iron rules, just remember them**
Maximum single loss: 2%
No more than 20 trades per year
Minimum risk-reward ratio: 3:1
Spend 70% of your time outside, don’t always go all-in

The abyss has always been there; I only light one lamp. Whether you want to follow this system and reach the other side is entirely up to you.