The XRP triangular signal near $1.80 indicates market indecision: what to expect?

XRP trades around $2.05 after a slight recovery, but the market remains trapped in a compression formation that reduces operational margins. Derivatives data show prolonged sideways movement with balanced liquidations, indicating that neither buyers nor sellers control the direction. Technical analysts identify critical levels that will determine whether the downward pressure continues or a rebound emerges.

The XRP token remains fragile after a 2% rebound in the last day, although the overall outlook remains complicated. The altcoin has fallen more than 9% over the past week, extending a bearish trend that began when the asset dropped from $2.07. This negative context dates back to mid-July, when XRP hit its yearly high around $3.66, marking the start of what has become the longest period of selling pressure of the year.

Now the market is debating between two scenarios: Is the price taking a momentary breather or preparing for a more pronounced new drop? The answer could lie in how the chart structure behaves in the upcoming movements.

Symmetrical Triangle and Compression: When the Market Chooses

From a technical perspective, XRP is within a symmetrical triangular formation reflecting a temporary battle between buyers and sellers. Descending highs continue to exert pressure from above, while ascending lows keep rising from below. This characteristic triangular pattern occurs when the price approaches the apex, leaving little room before the market is forced to make a direction decision.

Technical indicator analysis adds a bearish context to this situation. The 50-day moving average stands at $2.18, significantly above current levels, while the 20-day is at $2.05. Both moving averages above the current price are a classic sign of weakened momentum.

The RSI, stuck near 36, provides additional information. This indicator has not managed to break above the midpoint of 50 since October, highlighting how persistent selling pressure has been over the past months. Although it approaches oversold territory, there is little room for further declines unless momentum shifts significantly.

Derivatives and Liquidations: Market in Paralysis

Futures activity data tell a story of stagnation. Open interest in XRP has remained virtually flat for over two months, currently at $3.52 billion. Such a horizontal line typically indicates limited bets and, consequently, compressed volatility. Traders seem to prefer waiting before taking new positions.

Liquidation figures reinforce this indecision landscape. In the last 24 hours, approximately $3.48 million in positions were forcibly closed. Notably, the distribution is nearly symmetrical: $1.95 million are long liquidations, while $1.52 million come from short positions. When both sides suffer declines at the same rate, market conviction tends toward zero.

This environment often generates sideways and irregular movements that frustrate momentum traders and reward patience more. Until a clear macro signal emerges or a significant liquidity pocket is found, XRP will likely oscillate within its familiar bounds.

Key Support Levels and Wave Structures on the Radar

Technical analysts who have followed XRP since its peak in July point out that the token has completed a corrective phase within an Elliott Wave structure. According to this interpretation, XRP has finished Wave 4, touching both $1.88 and confirming the previous high of $3.66. The next projected Fibonacci extension would be around $5.85, although this projection entirely depends on future market conditions.

Regarding immediate supports, $1.92 stands out as the barrier XRP must hold to avoid further pressure toward $1.00. This level has proven relevant in previous cycles, functioning more as a key risk parameter than a directional assumption.

Both levels are clustered in a narrow zone between $1.80 and $1.92. If broken downward, the chart will open toward lower zones previously defined at $1.75 and $1.50. If maintained, the triangular structure could provide enough stability for XRP to move toward a clearer indication of intent.

For now, the market remains suspended between these two possibilities, supported by increasingly tight trend lines, quiet derivatives activity, and a crowd waiting for a decisive move rather than provoking one.