When Whales Own 671,000 Bitcoin: Is the Market Running Out of Supply?

Over the past fortnight, Strategy executed a bold move that sent ripples through the entire crypto market: acquiring more than 10,000 BTC in just seven days, valued at approximately $900 million. Even as bitcoin prices faced downward pressure and the fund’s net asset value dipped below par, Strategy didn’t retreat—instead, it doubled down with conviction. Today, this mega-holder commands roughly 671,000 bitcoins, worth over $50 billion, cementing its status among the world’s most dominant institutional players in the space.

But here’s the question that’s keeping traders awake: with such aggressive and relentless accumulation, how much bitcoin is actually available to buy?

The Math Behind Bitcoin’s True Supply

Theoretically, bitcoin caps at 21 million coins. In reality, the picture looks drastically different. Currently, approximately 19.96 million BTC have been mined—95% of the total supply. Only about 1.04 million coins remain to be produced, with new blocks generating roughly 450 BTC daily. At current mining rates, the final bitcoin won’t surface until around 2140.

Yet mining schedules don’t drive prices. What matters is how many coins can actually change hands. And here’s where the story gets intriguing: over 30% of all bitcoins haven’t moved in years—they’re classified as dormant. Another 20% are essentially lost forever. Government treasuries, listed companies, and ETFs have locked away vast portions, with most having exited the rapid-turnover game. Exchange reserves have collapsed to multi-year lows.

The result? Real tradable supply is evaporating.

Who’s Holding the Majority?

Long-term holders now control the market’s destiny. According to Glassnode data, this cohort collectively owns approximately 14.35 million BTC—over 70% of all coins in active circulation.

Here’s the institutional breakdown:

Enterprise Holdings: 153 companies now hold non-zero BTC balances, with 29 listed firms controlling 1.082 million coins. Strategy alone accounts for 671,000 BTC—a staggering 62% of all corporate holdings.

What’s particularly noteworthy: back in October, only 67 entities had BTC positions. Today that number has tripled to 153. Are new players quietly accumulating during dips? The timing suggests yes.

ETF Dominance: Spot bitcoin ETFs hold roughly 1.311 million BTC. BlackRock leads with approximately 777,000 coins, followed by Fidelity at 202,000 and Grayscale at 167,000.

Government Treasuries: Nations globally hold about 615,000 bitcoins. The US government tops the list with 325,000 coins.

The “Lost Bitcoin” Problem

One of the most critical yet overlooked factors: bitcoins with no recent movement for over a decade total approximately 3.409 million. This bucket includes both early exchange cold storage and true believers—but also coins likely permanently destroyed due to lost private keys or deceased holders.

Consider this: no “password recovery” function exists for bitcoin. Lost private key = lost coins, forever. Murphy’s analysis suggests that of the ancient BTC created between 2010-2014, at least 50% have likely vanished into the ether. That’s approximately 1.06 million coins gone permanently.

Add another category: UTXOs from 2009 (Satoshi era coins worth roughly 1.08 million BTC) that haven’t budged since December 2011. In total, roughly 2.14 million bitcoins may be permanently locked away, economically destroyed despite remaining on the blockchain.

Exchange Reserves Hit a Critical Low

The most direct supply metric: exchange wallets currently hold only 2.49 million bitcoins—a new low since 2023. This downward trajectory tells everything about market structure. Demand is consolidating into institutional hands while supply available for spontaneous trading continues shrinking.

Strategy’s acquisition pattern aligns perfectly with the densest area in bitcoin’s supply curve—roughly between $80,000 and $118,000—meaning institutional buyers are absorbing heavy resistance zones that would traditionally spark selling pressure.

What This Means for the Market

When institutional accumulation outpaces available supply, and long-term holders represent 70% of circulation, you’re witnessing a fundamental market rebalancing. Bitcoin isn’t becoming scarcer on paper. But on exchanges, in trading venues, in the hands of willing sellers? The pool is contracting visibly.

At current BTC price levels around $90.65K, the narrative of supply scarcity isn’t hype—it’s structural reality. Whether that fuels the next leg of this cycle depends on whether new capital continues chasing a shrinking float.