How the Fed policy is turning into a "hidden engine" for Bitcoin: Arthur Hayes-style $200K anticipation

Market analysis suggests that there is a hidden potential for Bitcoin’s sharp rise driven by a small change in Uzbekistan’s monetary policy. Its theory is based on federal liquidity supply and how institutions interpret this policy.

What does Arthur Hayes forecast for Bitcoin?

Renowned crypto analyst Hayes has outlined a clear outlook for Bitcoin’s price trend. His calculations indicate an initial consolidation around $124,000, followed by a rejection at approximately $200,000. This is not just a simple number — it is linked to a deep analysis of how the US financial system operates.

Currently, Bitcoin is far from its present value. By mid-January 2026, BTC is estimated to hover around $90.65K, with a 24-hour decrease of 0.22%.

How does the Fed’s hidden liquidity program work?

Arthur Hayes’ main hypothesis is that the Federal Reserve is currently injecting $40 billion into the system every month through a program called Reinvestment Policy (RMP). However, this is not just a number, but a matter of perception:

Today, the market largely considers RMP to be much stronger than traditional Quantitative Easing (QE). But what if this view changes? What if traders start to see RMP as a disguised form of QE? At that moment, a rapid reassessment could begin.

How is Bitcoin’s price expected to develop periodically?

Hayes predicts a gradual increase:

By the end of 2024: Bitcoin may fluctuate between $80,000 and $100,000. The market is still contemplating the real impact of the RMP strategy.

Spring 2025: Data on the impact of RMP will be released. This period is considered the most critical.

Next phase: Even with potential corrections, Hayes sees the possibility of a strong support level at $124,000.

What is the main obstacle to this forecast?

Hayes points out a personal risk factor since the timing: the Federal Reserve continuing liquidity supply. If John Williams and other future Fed leaders change the RMP, the entire forecast will shift.

Interesting questions and quick answers

For investors: how should the market interpret Fed statements?

Arthur Hayes’ analysis highlights an interesting point — the policy itself is not the main catalyst, but the market’s reaction to it. If institutions and the collective of traders perceive RMP as QE, money could flow into digital assets.

Why does Bitcoin rise through this liquidity?

Increased cash often seeks assets that are stable in inflation. Bitcoin, being a digital “precious” asset, can see demand naturally rise if “stealth QE” is effective.

Is this scenario likely to happen exactly as described?

No one can guarantee it. Hayes ties the scenario to several conditions: the Fed adds liquidity, the market quickly perceives it as QE, and institutions act accordingly. If any of these conditions break, the scenario will change.

Conclusion: The gap between policy and market interpretation

Arthur Hayes’ $200,000 price forecast is not a fact but an estimate of the probability of a specific economic scenario occurring if certain conditions are met. Analysts who consider macroeconomic policy’s role in crypto numbers hold an advantage.

The lesson for investors is to monitor Fed actions, market sentiment, and Bitcoin’s value as interconnected factors. No single element acts alone; coordinated dynamics drive the market.