Will BTC break above 95,079 or fall below 86,616? $1.6 billion in liquidations are waiting.

BTC current price is $90,471.80, exactly between two key liquidation levels. According to the latest data, if BTC breaks above $95,079, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.601 billion; conversely, if it drops below $86,616, the cumulative long liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.54 billion. This means that whether BTC moves up or down, it could trigger chain liquidations worth billions of dollars.

Market Implications of the Two Liquidation Levels

Currently, BTC’s price is positioned between two massive liquidation pressures, reflecting a “sandwich” situation that indicates divergent attitudes among market participants.

Short positions face greater liquidation pressure

The $16.01 billion short liquidation triggered by breaking above $95,079 slightly exceeds the long liquidation. This suggests that bearish forces are relatively more concentrated in the market. Once BTC breaks upward, the liquidation of these short positions could further push prices higher, creating a “short squeeze” effect. According to recent reports, total on-chain contract liquidations in the past 24 hours have reached $215 million, including $87.1967 million in BTC liquidations, indicating ongoing risk release due to market volatility.

Long positions should not be underestimated

The $15.4 billion long liquidation triggered by falling below $86,616 is also significant. This level is about $4,000 away from the current price and relatively easy to reach. If BTC experiences a pullback, long position liquidations could accelerate the downward momentum.

True Attitudes of Market Participants

It is noteworthy that different participants have markedly divergent views on the future market.

According to the latest news, CME futures open interest has increased counterintuitively to $110 billion, while Binance’s open interest has significantly decreased. This divergence reflects differing attitudes between institutional funds (represented by CME) and retail investors (represented by Binance)—institutions are accumulating positions, while retail traders are reducing their holdings.

Meanwhile, several listed companies are expanding their BTC reserves, including Twenty One Capital planning to add at least 5,800 BTC, and BitMine Immersion Technologies adding 32,977 ETH. These corporate accumulation actions signal long-term optimism, contrasting with short-term liquidation risks.

Decisive Role of Short-term Price Direction

The current situation resembles a “time bomb”—liquidation strength has been building up, waiting for the price direction to be confirmed. If BTC can stabilize around $90,000 and break above $95,079, the $1.6 billion short liquidation will be released, potentially pushing prices higher. Conversely, if BTC drops below $86,616, the $1.54 billion long liquidation will be triggered, possibly accelerating the decline.

From a technical perspective, recent data shows that BTC’s short-term moving averages have generated a bullish crossover (20-day moving average crossing above the 50-day), which typically indicates a short-term bullish outlook. However, market realities are often more complex than technical signals.

Summary

BTC is currently at a delicate equilibrium—two massive liquidation levels are waiting above and below, and any breakout in either direction could trigger chain reactions worth billions. Market sentiment is also diverging: institutions are accumulating, retail traders are reducing holdings, and companies are positioning for the long term. In the short term, the direction of price movement is more critical than the magnitude of the move, as it determines the release of liquidation pressure. For traders, understanding these liquidation levels can help assess risks more rationally; for long-term investors, corporate and institutional accumulation actions may be more noteworthy.