2026: New Expectations for Digital Assets—When Institutional Capital Begins to Lead the Market

After more than a decade of development with significant volatility, the cryptocurrency ecosystem is entering a completely different phase. From Bitcoin’s modest market capitalization of 1 million USD, digital assets have now grown into an alternative asset class worth approximately 3 trillion USD, with millions of different tokens. This shift is not accidental—it reflects a fundamental change in how capital is imported into the market.

Analysts at Grayscale recently released forecasts for 2026 with two main highlights: ongoing demand for alternative store-of-value tools at the macro level, and a significant improvement in regulatory clarity. The combination of these two factors is expected to drive new capital flows, expand digital asset adoption, especially among asset management advisors and institutional investors.

Main Market Trends: From Retail Cycles to the Era of Institutional Investors

Capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market are no longer primarily driven by enthusiastic buying waves from retail investors. Instead, the main drivers now come from regulated channels, long-term funds, and sustainable economic platforms. This insight is profound: prices are no longer mainly dependent on short-term excitement but on long-term fundamentals.

The previously used “four-year cycle” theory to explain periodic crypto market volatility is gradually losing validity. Instead of price jumps of 1000% in a year like previous cycles, the current market is experiencing more moderate increases—around 240% from the beginning of 2024—reflecting the involvement of more stable institutional investors.

Based on this, Grayscale experts expect Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs in the first half of 2026. Two main factors support this optimistic view: ongoing macro demand for alternative store-of-value tools (due to declining USD depreciation), and a clear increase in regulatory clarity following the approval of the GENIUS Act for stablecoins.

Ten Major Investment Themes for 2026

1. Currency Devaluation Risks Drive Demand for Alternative Money Tools

The US economy faces significant structural debt issues. These policies could pressure the long-term status of the USD as a store of value. Only a limited number of digital assets are capable of fulfilling this role—Bitcoin and Ethereum are the most prominent candidates, thanks to their broad user base, decentralized network structure, and limited supply.

Bitcoin, with a fixed total supply of 21 million, will reach 20 million in March 2026, a milestone predictable through programmed rules. Similar to physical gold, their value stems from scarcity and self-sovereignty. Zcash, a smaller digital currency with privacy features, could also serve investment portfolios to hedge against USD devaluation risks.

2. Regulatory Clarity Promotes Widespread Adoption of Digital Assets

2025 marked significant progress: the GENIUS Act was approved for stablecoins, SAB 121 was eliminated, and common standards for crypto ETPs were announced. In 2026, bipartisan legislation on crypto market structure is expected to pass, providing a regulatory framework similar to traditional finance.

In practice, this means regulated financial institutions will be able to add digital assets to their balance sheets and begin on-chain trading. It could also promote on-chain capital formation—both startups and established companies can issue compliant tokens.

3. Post-GENIUS Act, Stablecoins Expand Influence

Stablecoins reached a “breakthrough” point in 2025, with a total circulation of about 300 billion USD and an average monthly trading volume of approximately 1.1 trillion USD over the past six months. Practical applications are expected to include: broader integration into cross-border payment services, collateral use in derivatives exchanges, appearing on corporate balance sheets, and replacing credit cards in online consumer payments.

This growth directly benefits blockchain networks that store these transactions (such as Ethereum, TRON, BNB Chain, Solana), while also driving infrastructure development and DeFi applications.

4. Asset Tokenization Enters a Critical Turning Point

The current scale of tokenized assets accounts for only about 0.01% of the total market capitalization of global stocks and bonds. However, as blockchain technology matures and regulatory clarity improves, this sector has the potential to grow approximately 1000 times by 2030. This expansion could generate significant value for blockchain networks and supporting applications that process tokenized asset transactions. Ethereum, BNB Chain, and Solana are currently leading this field, though the landscape may change in the future.

5. Blockchain Moving Toward Mainstream, Growing Demand for Privacy Solutions

Privacy remains a core component of the financial system—most people expect that their salaries, tax information, asset sizes, and consumption behaviors are not visible on public ledgers. However, most current blockchains default to high transparency. To deeply integrate into the financial system, public blockchains need mature and robust privacy infrastructure.

Zcash stands out as a decentralized digital currency similar to Bitcoin but with built-in privacy protections. Other notable projects include Aztec (a privacy-focused Layer 2 on Ethereum) and Railgun (privacy middleware for DeFi).

6. AI Focus and the Need for Blockchain-Like Solutions

The fundamental compatibility between crypto technology and artificial intelligence has never been clearer and more powerful. Currently, AI systems are gradually concentrating around a few major companies, raising concerns about trust, bias, and ownership. Cryptocurrency technology offers fundamental capabilities to directly address these risks.

Decentralized AI platforms like Bittensor aim to reduce dependence on centralized AI tech, while World provides “Proof of Personhood” to verify and distinguish real humans from intelligent agents in a rampant synthetic environment. Story Protocol offers on-chain intellectual property expression in an era where digital content provenance is increasingly difficult to verify.

7. Rapid Growth of DeFi, Led by Lending

DeFi applications experienced significant expansion in 2025, especially in interest-bearing loans driven by protocols like Aave, Morpho, and Maple Finance. Perpetual derivatives exchanges like Hyperliquid are increasingly approaching or even surpassing some major centralized derivatives exchanges in open interest and daily trading volume.

As transparency, interoperability among protocols, and tighter integration with real-world price systems increase, DeFi will gradually become a viable alternative for users seeking on-chain financial activities.

8. Mainstream Adoption of Layer-1 Solutions to Drive Next-Gen Infrastructure Upgrades

The new generation of blockchains continues to push technological boundaries, but some investors believe that additional block capacity is not needed immediately. Solana was a prime example of this skepticism—considered a high-performance, low-usage public chain—until application waves emerged, making it one of the industry’s most successful examples.

Not all high-performance public chains can replicate Solana’s path, but we believe some projects may succeed. Good technology does not automatically guarantee adoption, but the architecture of these next-generation networks gives them unique advantages in new application scenarios such as micro AI payments, real-time gaming loops, high-frequency on-chain trading, and intent-based systems.

9. Focus on Sustainable Revenue Models

Blockchain is not a traditional company, but it also has measurable core indicators, including: user count, transaction count, transaction fees, total value locked (TVL), developer count, and application ecosystem. Among these, Grayscale considers transaction fees the most important single indicator, as it is hardest to manipulate, highly comparable across blockchains, and best reflects practical viability.

From a traditional corporate finance perspective, transaction fees can be viewed as “revenue.” As institutional investors begin systematically allocating assets to cryptocurrencies, they are expected to pay more attention to blockchains and applications with high or clearly increasing fee revenue.

10. “Default” Investors Will Likely Choose Staking

In 2025, US policymakers made two significant changes to staking mechanisms: the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) explicitly stated that liquid staking activities are not considered securities transactions; the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Department of Treasury confirmed that trust funds and exchange-traded products (ETP) can stake digital assets.

Regulatory guidance for liquid staking services favors Lido and Jito—top liquid staking protocols by TVL on Ethereum and Solana ecosystems, respectively. Staking as a default holding method for proof-of-stake (PoS) tokens could become a standard structure, increasing overall staking rates and exerting downward pressure on staking yields.

“Negative” Issues of Little Concern

While the investment themes listed above are expected to have practical impacts on the development of the crypto market in 2026, there are two issues that, despite widespread attention, are not expected to significantly influence market trends.

Quantum computing: Although the long-standing struggle of quantum computing technology continues, experts believe that quantum computers powerful enough to break Bitcoin’s cryptography will not appear before 2030. The community is expected to accelerate post-quantum cryptography research in 2026, but short-term price impacts are unlikely.

Digital asset custody companies (DATs): Although the strategy of “adding digital assets to corporate balance sheets” gained dozens of followers in 2025, demand for these tools has declined since mid-2025 peak. Most DATs do not use excessive leverage, so they are unlikely to be forced to sell assets during market downturns.

Conclusion

Grayscale maintains an optimistic outlook for digital assets in 2026, primarily driven by two synergistic forces: ongoing macro demand for alternative store-of-value tools, and continuous regulatory clarity improvements. The key in the coming year may be deeper connections between blockchain finance and traditional finance, with institutional capital continuously entering the space. Accepted tokens by organizations often have clear use cases, sustainable revenue models, and can list on compliant exchanges.

Investors can also expect ongoing expansion of investable crypto assets via ETPs, with potential for automatic staking mechanisms. Simultaneously, regulatory clarity and organization will raise entry barriers for mainstream success. The crypto industry is entering a completely new phase, and not all tokens will survive the transition from the old era to the new.