The Fusaka update boosts expectations as ETH seeks to consolidate above $3,100

As the Fusaka upgrade scheduled for early December approaches, Ethereum faces a critical moment in its technical trajectory. After falling into oversold territory, the second-largest crypto asset by market capitalization is attempting to reaffirm itself around $3,100, a level that could determine whether the rebound is sustainable or just a tactical correction.

Technical momentum shows signs of recovery

Indicators reveal a significant shift in market dynamics. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved from extremely bearish levels around 37 toward more constructive readings, while the MACD registered a bullish crossover — a combination that historically anticipates periods of price strengthening.

These technical movements coincide with emerging buying demand among tactical traders looking to position themselves before the main catalysts. However, ETH is still trading below its 30-day moving average at $3,343, keeping the scenario within a medium-term correction.

Key levels to watch are clear: an intraday support at $2,869 and an immediate resistance at $2,963 (Fibonacci retracement 78.6%). A daily close above $2,979 would open the door toward $3,100 as the next target. Conversely, breaking below $2,860 reopens the possibility of testing June’s low at $2,681.

PeerDAS: the central piece transforming the narrative

What sets this moment apart is the context of Fusaka, an upgrade promising to revolutionize Ethereum’s processing capacity. The key component is PeerDAS, an innovative data availability system that distributes block information storage among subsets of validators randomly.

The projected impact is substantial: PeerDAS is expected to multiply Ethereum’s data throughput by approximately eight, leading to drastic cost reductions for Layer 2 solutions. Rollups could offer fees below a cent, reinforcing Ethereum as the settlement infrastructure for DeFi, gaming, and real-world asset tokenization (RWA).

Historically, markets anticipate these major improvements, but recent downward pressure suggests investors are waiting for technical confirmations before adopting constructive positions.

Market dynamics in volatility cycles

During turbulent periods like the current one, circulating information determines the next direction. Crypto projects operating within the Ethereum ecosystem need to synchronize their communication with actual market sentiment cycles — not just wait for generic opportunities.

Narrative agendas change rapidly. In a context where Ethereum oscillates between oversold conditions and optimism catalyzed by upgrades, projects must align with what the community is actively discussing: Layer 2 scalability, RWA adoption, or technical milestones like Fusaka.

Those who manage to link their stories with the current narrative momentum gain greater visibility, while latecomers discover the market has already moved on to the next topic.

The crossroads: Sustained recovery or temporary correction?

Ethereum stands at a critical bifurcation:

Bullish scenario: A close above $2,963 would validate the recovery pattern, with $3,100 as the first extension target. If the market begins to price in the benefits of Fusaka — especially the fee reductions linked to PeerDAS — momentum could intensify.

Bearish scenario: A break below $2,860 reopens the test of June’s level at $2,681, indicating that the oversold condition was too brief to reverse the overall trend.

The weeks leading up to Fusaka’s activation will be decisive. The market is watching whether ETH can build a solid technical base before the upgrade — or if traders will wait for further confirmation before becoming constructive again. For now, the best guide remains the price structure: the zone between $2,963 and $3,100 will act as a thermometer of institutional confidence in what’s coming.