Morning Briefing: Policy Shift, Personnel Changes, and Technological Evolution - Be Alert to Large Token Unlocks This Week

The Fed’s Attitude Shifts, Rate Hike Cycle May Be a Thing of the Past

Federal Reserve officials’ statements have sent new signals. Harker, in an interview, stated that after three consecutive rate cuts, there is no need for further adjustments in the near term. His core concern is not financial market fragility but persistent inflation. The official expects the benchmark interest rate to remain at current levels until spring, unless inflation data shows significant improvement or the labor market weakens substantially.

This statement has dual implications for the crypto market: on one hand, a stable interest rate environment reduces monetary policy uncertainty; on the other hand, high inflation expectations may continue to support the appeal of inflation-hedging assets like Bitcoin.

Crypto Industry Loses Key Advocate, Industry Outlook Clouded

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis announced she will not seek re-election, sparking ripples within the crypto community. Many industry figures expressed gratitude and regret—from a16z’s government affairs head to White House crypto policy advisors—acknowledging Lummis’s historic contributions to the field. The industry consensus is: without her ongoing voice in Congress, the policy status of crypto assets would not be as high as it is today.

Nonetheless, Kyle Samani reminds that there is still a lot of legislation to push through by 2026, indicating the industry needs to find new policy allies to maintain momentum.

Institutional Bitcoin Price Predictions Diverge

Three major institutions have released markedly different views:

Citi’s base case is the most optimistic—predicting Bitcoin will rise to $143,000 in 12 months (about 58% increase from current $90.69K), citing ETF demand revival and positive stock market expectations. They also provide downside risk scenarios of $78,500 and upside of $189,000.

Galaxy Research focuses more on long-term structural opportunities, estimating Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027, but admits that 2026 is too chaotic for precise forecasts. The options market pricing reflects this uncertainty—mid-year Bitcoin has roughly equal probability between $70,000-$130,000, with significant volatility at year-end between $50,000-$250,000.

Coinbase Institutional adopts a cautious tone akin to “1996 rather than 1999,” positioning the first half of 2026 as a high-risk period but expecting Bitcoin and Ethereum to hit new highs before year-end. They emphasize four major development directions: privacy tech (including zero-knowledge proofs and fully homomorphic encryption), AI autonomous trading agents, application chain reshaping, and tokenization of securities. Stablecoin total market cap is expected to surpass $1.2 trillion before 2028.

Why Do Tom Lee and His Team Have Contradictory Views?

This week, internal discussions at Fundstrat revealed differing tones on Bitcoin. Tom Lee, as the public face, maintains a strong bullish stance; while strategy head Sean Farrell adopts a more defensive approach due to managing high-allocated crypto portfolios for clients.

Essentially, this is not contradiction but division of roles: Tom Lee targets large funds with 1-5% BTC/ETH allocations, requiring a long-term narrative; Sean serves professional investors with over 20% allocations, needing active management and cycle rotation. Sean’s plan is to convert 50% of holdings to stablecoins if Bitcoin drops to $60,000-$65,000, as a risk management measure—not a bearish view on fundamentals. Technical analyst Mark Newton focuses on mid-term rebound opportunities, believing structural highs are still achievable by year-end.

The consensus among the three is: the first half of 2026 will be highly volatile, but the long-term cycle is expected to follow the traditional 4-year pattern, with milder bear markets than in previous cycles.

Tether Launches New Wallet Strategy, Integrates AI and Diversified Assets

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino revealed that the company is developing a mobile wallet app integrating local private AI, supporting Bitcoin, USDT, the newly launched stablecoin USAT, and tokenized gold XAUT. The underlying infrastructure is built on Tether’s own WDK development tools and the QVAC decentralized AI platform. This marks a move by stablecoin issuers into hardware and smart tools, aiming to build a more comprehensive user ecosystem.

Strategy May Make Big Moves Again, Michael Saylor Signals

Strategy founder Michael Saylor has again hinted at additional Bitcoin purchases. Historically, such announcements are often followed by actual trades the next day, suggesting another wave of institutional accumulation may be imminent. This reflects that even at market highs, large holders remain confident in Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation.

Token Unlock Wave This Week — Over $70 Million Pending Release

From Thursday to Sunday, a series of token unlocks will occur across many projects:

• H coin (Dec 25): 105.4 million tokens unlocked, approx. $15.62 million market cap, 4.79% circulating supply
• XPL (Dec 25): 88.89 million tokens, approx. $11.50 million market cap, 4.52%
• Jupiter (JUP) (Dec 28): 53.47 million tokens, approx. $10.28 million market cap, 1.73%
• SOON (Dec 23): 21.88 million tokens, approx. $8.82 million market cap, 5.97%
• MBG (Dec 22): 15.84 million tokens, approx. $8.04 million market cap, 8.42%
• UDS (Dec 23): 2.15 million tokens, approx. $5.17 million market cap, 1.46%
• SAHARA (Dec 26): 132.9 million tokens, approx. $3.57 million market cap, 5.30%
• AltLayer (ALT) (Dec 25): 240.1 million tokens, approx. $2.78 million market cap, 4.85%
• VENOM (Dec 25): 59.26 million tokens, approx. $2.57 million market cap, 2.14%
• SOSO (Dec 24): 4.16 million tokens, approx. $2.31 million market cap, 1.59%
• W (Dec 26): 50.41 million tokens, approx. $1.75 million market cap, 0.99%
• IOTA (Dec 24): 12.37 million tokens, approx. $1.09 million market cap, 0.33%

Tokens with unlock ratios between 4-8% (H, XPL, SOON, MBG, SAHARA) warrant special attention, as large weekly releases often exert downward pressure on short-term prices. Larger-cap tokens like JUP have better absorption capacity, while small and mid-cap tokens should be approached cautiously.

Regulatory Spotlight: Content Platforms Strengthen Self-Regulation

Short video platform Douyin has introduced new guidelines for financial content, explicitly banning illegal financial content under the guise of blockchain and digital assets, as well as disguised stock price predictions or investment advice under the pretext of science popularization. This reflects ongoing regulatory efforts to crack down on misleading concepts and profiteering behaviors.

Market Highlights Summary

This week, the information volume is large, but several main themes are clear: macro policy expectations remain stable but inflation persists; institutions share a long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin but differ on short-term paths; technological innovation—especially in privacy and AI integration—becomes the next growth driver; token unlock schedules require close monitoring to avoid short-term risks. For long-term holders, now is a good window to reinforce positions and learn new tech applications.