Has the Bitcoin bull market logic changed? The shift in driving forces from "newcomers flooding in" to "chip locking"

Industry Observation: The Invisible Hand on the Supply Side

Recently, an interesting phenomenon has been highlighted by industry insiders — Bitcoin’s recent rally may no longer rely on a continuous influx of new participants. The traditional bull market pattern used to be this: tech enthusiasts first paid attention, then programmers got involved, followed by retail investors rushing in, and finally traditional financial institutions jumping on the bandwagon. Each wave brought new money, pushing prices higher. But after 2024, it seems the game is quietly changing.

ETF and Institutional Entry Rewrite the Supply-Demand Equation

When ETFs get approved and large institutions start accumulating, an important development occurs: More and more Bitcoin is no longer considered a “tradeable asset,” but a “long-term reserve asset.” It’s similar to how gold enters central bank vaults — once inside, it’s hard to get out. These holdings, held long-term by institutions and funds, are unlikely to be sold off in the short term, leading to a shrinking supply available for trading.

Supply Contraction Becomes the New Price Driver

As holdings become locked and sellers grow scarce, prices no longer need to be driven by “faith upgrades” and “narrative shifts.” The natural contraction of supply alone is enough to push prices higher. Simply put, with the same buying pressure, but spread over fewer tradable chips, the upward pressure on prices naturally increases. This driver stems from structural factors, making it more stable and predictable than relying on collective psychology and “cognitive diffusion.”

Market Implication: From Narrative-Driven to Scarcity-Driven

The deeper implication of this shift is that the next phase of Bitcoin’s rise may follow a fundamentally different logic. It’s no longer about waiting for the next big story or the awakening of new user awareness, but about the price tension created by the natural contraction of supply. Who holds the chips matters more than the story behind the chips.