2025 Crypto "Four Seasons": Trump Effect, Wealth Creation in the Treasury, Tokenization Wave, Rise of Prediction Markets

2025 is coming to an end. Standing at the tail end of the “Mainstreaming of Cryptocurrency Year,” a review of this year’s market trajectory using four quarterly keywords reveals how cryptocurrencies have gradually infiltrated and transformed the global financial landscape.

This year was destined to be extraordinary. From the political shifts in January to the global trade shocks in April; from the hundreds of millions of dollars in floating gains of treasury companies to Nasdaq’s entry into tokenized stocks; from the race among on-chain derivatives DEXs to the soaring valuations of the dual giants in prediction markets— the crypto market has completed another year of transformation amid the triangular struggles of capital, regulation, and public opinion.

Such a year is neither entirely a bull market nor a bear market. Under the influence of Trump and various governments worldwide, the market resembled a monkey jumping up and down—some falling from grace, others rising on the trend. For all participants, success and failure will ultimately be revealed in this “Crypto Investment Memoir.”

Crypto Spring: Trump Effect Continues, Trump Wealth Creation and Regulatory Framework Clarify

In January, Trump officially took office as President of the United States. Continuing the momentum from last year’s election victory, after a brief consolidation, BTC’s price once again approached the $100,000 mark.

The “official Meme coin” TRUMP became the trigger for the first wave of wealth creation. Starting from a $4 billion FDV, amidst various doubts, TRUMP’s total market cap soared, quickly surpassing $10 billion, $30 billion, and eventually reaching an astonishing over $80 billion. In this astonishing wealth creation, many Meme players in the Chinese-speaking regions earned millions of dollars, even exceeding $20 million.

This was also the “second spring” of the crypto market after Trump’s election. On January 20, BTC hit a new all-time high again, rising to $109,800. Everyone regarded Trump as the “First Crypto President.” But as the saying goes, “Water can carry a boat but also overturn it”—Trump brought not only macro benefits to the market but also controversy, harvesting, and oscillations brought by family projects.

The core of the “Trump Effect” lies in whether it can directly improve the US crypto regulatory environment. Trump gradually fulfilled his promises: replacing the US SEC chairman with Paul Atkins, appointing David Sacks as the White House AI and Cryptocurrency Director, and pushing for the passage of the GINUS stablecoin regulation bill.

In early March, Trump signed an executive order to promote the establishment of a US Bitcoin strategic reserve using previously seized BTC assets. Although the prediction market on “establishing BTC national strategic reserves within 100 days of Trump taking office” ultimately was judged as “No,” this series of policy signals was enough to demonstrate a shift in the Trump administration’s attitude toward crypto assets.

During this period, the market also witnessed a series of historic events: on-chain derivatives platforms saw insiders profit millions of dollars from news like “Trump establishing a crypto reserve”; the Ethereum Foundation underwent management updates. Additionally, there were controversies such as the “Melania Token Incident” involving Trump’s wife and other political celebrity coins, which were seen as contentious operations by token issuance groups.

Crypto Summer: Treasury Wave and the Establishment of Stablecoin Dominance

At the beginning of the second quarter, the crypto market was hit hard. In early April, Trump launched a global “tariff trade war.” On April 7, “Black Monday,” US stock market value evaporated by over $6 trillion in about a week. The crypto market plummeted—BTC briefly fell below $80,000 to $77,000; ETH dropped to a low of $1,540; total crypto market cap fell to $2.6 trillion, with a single-day decline of over 9%.

It was from this point that ETH began to show signs of bottoming out and rebounding. With the momentum of US stock IPOs by stablecoin issuers, stablecoins and PayFi gradually entered the mainstream, seen as the key to “large-scale adoption” of crypto.

In late May, US-listed company Sharplink transitioned from a sports marketing firm to become the first “ETH treasury-listed company.” Since then, the DAT treasury craze swept the market. More companies joined this wave, and ETH prices finally broke out of the downturn, successfully surpassing the $4,800 historical high after a few months, approaching $5,000.

Tracking data shows the total number of ETH treasury companies increased to nearly 70. Among them, Bitmine held the largest ETH position with 3.86 million ETH; Sharplink was second with over 860,000 ETH; ETH Machine ranked third with over 490,000 ETH. The ETH holdings of these three companies significantly exceeded the Ethereum Foundation’s holdings (less than 230,000 ETH).

With ETH treasury companies leading the way, other altcoin treasury companies like SOL, BNB, and various DAT firms also emerged rapidly, with their stock prices fluctuating wildly. But the good times didn’t last long. As the market cooled, ETH treasury companies like Bitmine began facing billions of dollars in paper unrealized losses. Many DAT companies even experienced market cap and crypto asset inversion phenomena, with mNAV (the ratio of crypto assets to company market cap) falling below 1.

It is said that “all gifts in fate are secretly marked with a price.” Amid the fiery surge, new opportunities also emerged—the wind of stock tokenization gradually blew in, and even traditional giants like Nasdaq began to undergo self-revolution and join this grand feast.

Crypto Autumn: Breakthrough in Stock Tokenization, On-Chain Derivatives and Stablecoin Public Chains Compete

By the end of June, stablecoin issuer Circle made a strong debut on US stocks, with its stock price soaring “10 times,” igniting market enthusiasm for crypto concept stocks. Related sectors in Hong Kong stocks also rose, with major internet giants announcing their entry into the stablecoin race.

Seizing this momentum, the RWA (Real-World Asset) track reached a critical turning point—stock tokenization platforms became the new focus. In early July, multiple exchanges announced the opening of stock tokenization trading, supporting tokenized trading of popular US stocks like AAPL, TSLA, NVDA. This truly bridged the “last mile” of “on-chain US stock tokenization trading,” giving ordinary crypto traders the first chance to diversify assets on-chain.

Leading crypto asset management giants actively issued stock tokens; meanwhile, major US stock exchanges submitted “tokenized stock trading applications” to regulators—traditional giants showed sharp insight in asset issuance and trading.

The feast in the native crypto market was dominated by two major sectors:

One was the “On-Chain Perp DEX Battle.” After Hyperliquid, BNB Chain’s ecosystem’s Aster contributed another wealth-creating miracle with aggressive “price pumping,” with many participants claiming to have earned “several million dollars.”

The other was the wealth-creating spectacle in the stablecoin sector. On one hand, top institutional-backed stablecoin public chains launched “wealth management deposit activities” offering generous airdrops, with some cases where depositing $1 yielded tokens worth over $9,000, a return of over 900 times; on the other hand, Trump’s family crypto project WLFI officially launched, leveraging its stablecoin USD1 to achieve a maximum return of over 6 times at public offering prices.

However, looking back at these projects now, one can’t help but feel regret. Data tracking shows that the token prices of related stablecoin projects have fallen by nearly 50%-90% from their peaks, and the market awaits a “legendary liquidation” surpassing any previous crash in history.

Crypto Winter: Major Crash Baptism, Prediction Market Giants Rise

After BTC hit a new high of $126,000 in early October, the market expected the continuation of the “Uptober” trend of previous years, but the “epic liquidation” on October 11 shattered all illusions.

The trigger again pointed to Trump—on the evening of October 10, Trump announced a 100% tariff increase. The three major US stock indices declined, with Nasdaq falling nearly 3.5%. The crypto market experienced exchange system issues, coupled with fragile market psychology, with BTC dropping to a low of $101,516, a 16% 24-hour decline; ETH hit a low of $3,400, down 22%; SOL dropped 31.83% in 24 hours. Altcoins bloodied the streets.

This liquidation caused a margin call of at least $30-40 billion, far exceeding previous major crashes on 3·12, 5·19, 9·4.

But within risk lies opportunity. Many profited handsomely from high-leverage shorts or bottom-fishing at low levels amid the chaos. As the “Trump-style hesitation” trading style was validated again, the market began a slow self-repair.

In such a bleak market environment, prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi gradually became hot spots in the crypto market. Their valuations soared over a few months. After Kalshi completed a $1 billion Series E financing, its valuation surged to $11 billion; Polymarket is seeking a new round of financing valued at $12-15 billion.

After passing through the four seasons, the mainstreaming process of the cryptocurrency industry continues. US regulation and traditional finance still largely determine the tide’s direction. For all crypto gold diggers, only by following the flow and timing can they find their own treasure of wealth.