Standard Chartered adjusts Ethereum outlook: mid-term lowered to $7,500, but long-term raised to $40,000

Standard Chartered Bank has recently adjusted its Ethereum price expectations, significantly lowering its medium-term targets but raising its long-term outlook. This seemingly contradictory move reflects differing institutional assessments of the short-term pressures and long-term potential of the crypto market.

Specific Changes in Expectation Adjustments

Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Global Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, stated that the bank has lowered its medium-term Ethereum price forecasts. The specific adjustments are as follows:

This adjustment pattern is interesting: the medium-term targets for 1-4 years are clearly lowered, but the long-term goal beyond 5 years is raised. Currently, ETH is trading around $3,105, which means that Standard Chartered expects ETH to rise approximately 141% by the end of 2026 to reach the $7,500 target.

Core Reasons for the Downward Adjustment

The Impact of Bitcoin’s Dominance

Geoffrey Kendrick pointed out that the main reason for the downward revision is “due to Bitcoin’s continued dominance in the space, Bitcoin’s underperformance has weakened the outlook for all digital assets against the dollar.”

This reflects a reality in the crypto market: Bitcoin’s performance often sets the tone for the entire market. When BTC underperforms expectations, other digital assets like Ethereum also come under pressure. This judgment from Standard Chartered indicates they believe Bitcoin may face some challenges in the medium term, which could drag down the entire market.

Short-term vs. Long-term Differences

The adjustment by Standard Chartered suggests a time-dimension difference:

• Short-term (1-4 years): Market influenced by Bitcoin’s dominance, limited growth potential
• Long-term (5+ years): Ethereum’s fundamentals and application prospects are strong enough to support higher valuations

Divergence in Market Analysis

Standard Chartered’s forecast is not a market consensus; different institutions hold significantly different views on ETH:

According to relevant information, the mainstream market consensus suggests ETH’s price in 2026 will likely fluctuate between $3,600 and $8,000. Standard Chartered’s $7,500 forecast is in the upper-middle part of this range, neither the most optimistic nor the most pessimistic.

Logic Behind the Long-term Upward Revision

Although the medium-term outlook has been lowered, Standard Chartered remains optimistic about Ethereum’s long-term prospects. Several supporting factors include:

• Institutional-grade infrastructure development: Standard Chartered itself is involved in crypto brokerage, custody, and related services, which will create conditions for ETH’s long-term appreciation.
• Ecosystem application growth: Upgrades like Layer 2 solutions and zero-knowledge proofs are expected to enhance network performance.
• Entry of traditional finance: More banks and institutions entering the crypto space will bring continuous incremental capital.
• Expansion of stablecoin market: Growth in on-chain stablecoins will also boost ETH’s utility value.

While these factors may not fully manifest within 1-4 years, by 2030 they should support ETH exceeding $40,000 in valuation.

Summary

This adjustment by Standard Chartered reflects a reality: the crypto market faces short-term pressures (mainly due to weak Bitcoin performance), but the long-term fundamentals remain positive. For investors, understanding this time dimension is key. The downward revision of the medium-term outlook should not be seen as bearish, but rather as a more cautious mid-term assessment. The upward revision to a $40,000 target indicates continued confidence in Ethereum’s value as a blockchain infrastructure. At the current price of around $3,100, there is still significant room to reach these targets, but achieving these expectations will require patience, market structure improvements, and ongoing institutional capital inflows.