Bitcoin at a decision point: Will the short position liquidation trigger before breaking $100,000?

Optimism in traditional and crypto markets is creating a fascinating scenario around Bitcoin. Over the past two weeks, BTC has consistently fluctuated between $90,000 and $93,000 as retail investors reaffirm purchases and institutions reinforce their positions with significant moves. Just this week, the price hovers around $90.69K, reflecting a key consolidation before a possible bullish turn.

The institutional move that changed the game

Fund managers like BlackRock have indicated that sovereign funds are acquiring Bitcoin in an “incremental” manner after its decline from the all-time high of $126.08K. According to digital asset research analysts, we are in a prolonged bullish cycle where persistent institutional buying surpasses any retail panic. This contrasts with previous cycles: Bitcoin’s 4-year pattern seems to have been broken, indicating a different outlook from the traditional.

The most recent purchase of 10,624 BTC (approximately $962.7 million) at an average of $90,615 per coin marked the most significant move since July 2025, demonstrating that major institutional players continue to bet on long-term appreciation.

Double bottom technique: The pattern that defines the recovery?

Since the low of November 21 at $80,612, Bitcoin has begun an ascent that accredited technicians interpret as the formation of a double bottom. This trading pattern, which took months to consolidate (from March to May in the previous cycle), suggests a firm support before a new bullish push.

However, technical resistance remains robust between $90,000 and $93,000. Actual technical supports are lower, in the range of $73.7K to $76.5K, indicating that although we are in recovery, there are still important defensive levels below.

Where are the short traders: Order book analysis

Order book data in BTC/USDT (perpetual contracts) reveal a wall of sell orders that begins precisely at $90,000 and intensifies from $94,000 to $95,000. This suggests organized selling resistance at these levels.

Even more interesting: the liquidation heatmap shows a concentration of short positions between $94,000 and $95,300. This range is critical because if the bulls manage to break this zone with sufficient volume, it would trigger a cascade of liquidations that could propel the price toward $100,000.

The retail vs. institutional factor in accumulated volume

Accumulated volume data show increasing participation from small operators (group of 0 to 100 BTC), while larger groups (1,000 to 100,000 and 100,000 to 1 million BTC) sell during the rebounds in the $90K-$93K range. This classic pattern suggests that big volumes are waiting for a retracement before reloading long positions.

The million-dollar question: Will they be liquidated before $100,000?

The scenario is clear: there is a visible gap between short-term resistance ($90K-$95K) and short liquidation levels ($94K-$95.3K). If Bitcoin manages to close above $95,000 with spot and futures volume, the dynamics would change radically. Automatic short position liquidations could serve as the catalyst to push BTC toward its next target: $100,000.

Meanwhile, the market remains leveraged and volatile, as noted by leading analysts. Traders waiting for double bottom confirmation have a clear opportunity, but timing remains the most uncertain variable.