Standard Chartered: Ethereum will significantly outperform the market by 2026, with a year-end target of $7,500

Standard Chartered releases 2026 digital asset outlook, providing interesting contradictory signals about Ethereum’s prospects: although lowering its price forecast, its view on Ethereum’s relative performance has become more optimistic. Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at the bank, straightforwardly states that 2026 will be the “Year of Ethereum,” expecting ETH to reach $7,500 by the end of the year, significantly surpassing other cryptocurrencies. Currently, ETH is priced around $3,105, which means about a 141% increase is needed to reach Standard Chartered’s target.

The Logic Behind the Forecast Adjustment

Why Lower but Remain Optimistic

In its latest report, Standard Chartered indeed lowered its Ethereum price target. Compared to the previous forecast of $12,000, the 2026 year-end target has been reduced from $12,000 to $7,500; the 2027 target was adjusted down from a high point to $15,000; and the 2028 target to $22,000. However, it is noteworthy that the bank also raised its long-term outlook, increasing the 2029 year-end forecast to $30,000, with an additional target of $40,000 by the end of 2030.

This adjustment reflects Standard Chartered’s pragmatic understanding of the current market. The bank acknowledges that Bitcoin’s continued dominance and underperformance in the space have weakened the overall upside potential of digital assets relative to the US dollar. In other words, it’s not a bearish view on Ethereum per se, but a cautious stance on the entire crypto market’s performance against fiat currencies.

Relative performance is the core

But this is precisely what makes Standard Chartered’s perspective interesting—Ethereum’s driving forces are strengthening relative to Bitcoin. The bank expects the ETH/BTC ratio to gradually return to the high levels of around 0.08 seen in 2021. This forecast is significant: even if Bitcoin’s overall performance remains modest, as long as Ethereum outperforms BTC, ETH’s absolute price still has room to rise.

Three Core Drivers

1. Structural Competitive Advantages

Standard Chartered emphasizes that Ethereum possesses structural advantages that other cryptocurrencies lack, mainly in three areas:

• Dominance in the stablecoin sector (major stablecoins like USDT, USDC are all deployed on Ethereum)
• The primary platform for tokenization of real-world assets (RWA)
• Absolute leader in the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem

These advantages are not just technical leadership but are built on long-term network effects and ecosystem moat.

2. Technological Upgrades and Performance Improvements

Plans to increase Layer 1 throughput are crucial. The bank specifically mentions measures taken with the Fusaka upgrade last December. It believes that historical data shows higher throughput often translates into higher market capitalization—this is a competitive advantage for Ethereum over other Layer 1 chains.

3. Improved Regulatory Environment

A more favorable regulatory environment could further improve the outlook. Standard Chartered specifically mentions the potential passage of the US Clarity Act in Q1. If approved, combined with the resilience of the US stock market, the bank believes this could push Bitcoin to a new all-time high in the first half of the year, which would also support Ethereum’s long-term upward trend.

Comparison with Other Market Voices

Current market forecasts for ETH in 2026 vary:

Standard Chartered’s $7,500 forecast is in the middle-upper range of mainstream optimistic expectations, neither extremely bullish nor conservative.

Key Observations

Standard Chartered’s Strategic Signals

It’s noteworthy that Standard Chartered itself is accelerating its crypto-related initiatives. The bank has invested in Zodia Custody (custody services) and Zodia Markets (trading platform), and in 2025 became the first global systemically important bank to offer spot crypto trading. It also plans to establish a crypto prime brokerage through its venture capital arm, SC Ventures. These concrete actions align with its optimistic view on Ethereum—large institutions are not just talking but actively deploying capital.

Implications of the Current Price

From $3,105 to $7,500 requires a 141% increase. Achieving this within 2026 implies an average monthly rise of about 8–10%. Given the volatility of the crypto market, this is neither impossible nor guaranteed. The key factors will be whether the Clarity Act passes, progress in Ethereum’s technological upgrades, and the actual adoption of on-chain applications.

Summary

Standard Chartered’s forecast reveals several key signals: first, institutional confidence in Ethereum’s relative performance is growing—not necessarily in absolute price but in relative returns; second, Ethereum’s structural advantages in stablecoins, RWA, and DeFi are being reassessed as long-term competitive strengths; third, expectations of regulatory improvements are becoming an important variable driving the crypto market upward.

For investors, this is not a “buy signal” but a “watching signal”—it’s worth paying attention to Ethereum’s relative performance against BTC, as well as the actual progress of key events like the Clarity Act and Fusaka upgrade.