## Is This Economic Slowdown Actually Bullish for Bitcoin? Unemployment Surge Tells Another Story

Bitcoin's resilience amid rising joblessness suggests the crypto bull run may have more runway than bears expect. On December 16, US unemployment data delivered a shock: the rate climbed to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, contrary to forecasts of 4.5% while previous readings sat at 4.4%. Yet rather than spelling doom, market watchers are interpreting this deterioration through a macro lens that could reignite cryptocurrency demand.

The employment report painted a curious picture. While nonfarm payrolls added 64,000 jobs—beating the projected 50,000—the unemployment surge revealed deeper labor market stress. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal, underscored the paradox: only healthcare and construction are meaningfully hiring, while other sectors have stalled or begun workforce reductions. She noted that job creation has essentially flatlined since April, and 710,000 more Americans joined the unemployment rolls compared to November 2024.

## The Fed Easing Cycle: A Tailwind for Scarce Assets?

Here's where the economic narrative intersects with crypto sentiment. Traders like Bull Theory are wagering that deteriorating employment will compel the Federal Reserve to accelerate its easing cycle in 2026, beyond the rate cuts already signaled at December's FOMC meeting. This prospective shift—marked by more aggressive rate reductions and expanded liquidity injections through Treasury purchases—has historically boosted demand for hard assets like Bitcoin.

Michaël van de Poppe framed the dynamic plainly: weakening economic conditions force policymakers to "activate the economy internally," triggering what he terms "obviously bullish" dynamics for scarce assets. His thesis hinges on the notion that monetary stimulus eventually finds its way into alternative stores of value when faith in traditional instruments wavers.

## Bitcoin's Technical Crossroads at $90.69K

As of mid-January 2026, Bitcoin trades near $90.69K, having already clawed back from the December 15 selloff. The recovery—gaining 1.84% in the three hours following the unemployment data release—signals initial market acceptance of the dovish interpretation. Yet technical barriers remain formidable.

BTC currently tests the 50-hour exponential moving average (1H50EMA) on the downside. A decisive break above this level would strengthen the bullish case, but the asset must simultaneously overcome the same resistance at four-hour and daily timeframes to confirm a meaningful turnaround. Until these technical hurdles fall, the question lingers: is the crypto bull run genuinely revived, or merely catching a transient relief bounce?

The answer may depend on whether the Federal Reserve truly pivots as aggressively as some expect. If monetary accommodation accelerates, scarce assets including Bitcoin could find sustained demand. If the labor market stabilizes before rate cuts materialize, the crypto rally risks fizzling before it truly ignites.