## When Whales Stop Selling: Why ETH Could Test New Ether High at $5K

Ethereum has slumped to levels where the network's largest holders are sitting on significant losses. Yet historically, these exact moments have preceded explosive rallies. Current market conditions suggest ETH may be setting up for another major breakout—potentially reaching $5,000 or higher.

### The Whale Accumulation Signal

The recent 45% decline that dragged ETH from October's $4,758 peak down to $2,621 in late November placed the price at a critical juncture. For the first time in years, the realized price of Ethereum addresses holding over 100,000 coins aligned closely with current trading levels.

This metric—which represents the average entry price of the network's largest stakeholders—has historically proven to be a powerful floor. CryptoQuant's analysis reveals that only four instances in the past five years saw ETH trade this close to the mega-holder cost basis. Two occurred during the 2022 bear market collapse, while the other two happened within the past 12 months.

The significance? Every previous time ETH bounced off this level, it triggered substantial upside moves. Most notably, when price rebounded from this zone in April, it powered into a 260% rally, eventually approaching the $5,000 psychological level. Analysts now view the current positioning as similarly compelling, with major holders effectively at average cost or underwater—a condition that historically precedes accumulation phases.

### Technical Patterns Suggest $5K Target

From a charting perspective, multiple patterns converge on the same bullish narrative. The weekly timeframe displays a textbook V-shaped recovery formation, with Ethereum currently testing the 50-week simple moving average positioned at $3,300.

Breaking above this resistance would target the V-shape neckline at $4,955—just shy of that emblematic $5,000 level. Such a move would represent a 53% advance from current prices, and traders monitoring the pattern suggest conviction is building around this objective.

The daily chart tells an equally intriguing story. According to technical specialists, a falling wedge pattern has compressed over recent weeks, creating the setup for what could be described as a dramatic breakout. One prominent on-chain analyst noted that ETH at $4,800 remains "closer than most realize"—suggesting the ether high may arrive faster than conventional expectations.

### Inverse Head-and-Shoulders Points to Extreme Target

Perhaps most ambitious is the inverse head-and-shoulders formation that has emerged against Bitcoin. This pattern, if completed, projects an 80% rally for Ethereum in 2026, implying price action north of $5,800—well above the round-number target discussed widely across markets.

### Why Now?

The confluence of whale accumulation, technical setup, and improving ETH fundamentals (including renewed spot ETF inflows and demand from treasury-holding organizations) creates what many market participants consider an asymmetric risk-reward scenario. Whether ETH reaches exactly $5,000 or surpasses it may matter less than recognizing the significance of current price levels in the historical context of Ethereum's cycles.