Bitcoin jumps at the end of the year: is $90,000 a real stability threshold?

The cryptocurrency market is currently undergoing a fundamental shift. Just a few weeks ago, investors were widely speculating on Bitcoin breaking above 100,000 USD; today, the focus is on defending the key level of 90,000 USD. The current BTC price of $90.69K, with a daily decline of 0.13%, shows how far the market sentiment is from euphoria.

Market narrative shift: from euphoria to consolidation

The transformation of expectations has occurred in just two weeks. In mid-December, the chances of breaking 100,000 USD were about 29-34% on Polymarket and Kalshi platforms. Today, probabilistic market models estimate that same breakout at only 5%, while over 84% of capital is betting on holding the 80,000 USD threshold.

Bitcoin’s growth story since early December illustrates this cooling-off. When BTC reached a historic maximum of $126.08K ( significantly higher than the previously estimated $108K), investors still believed in further upward rally. Today, quotes at $90.69K represent corrections of about 28% from the peak – a distance that psychologically changes the market’s outlook.

Technical analysis: where is the balance?

Both analysts and practicing traders currently recognize a geometric formation that can be precisely mapped using a triangle calculator. The current resistance around 94,000 USD, along with previous support, forms an ascending triangle, whose dimensions indicate a potential target increase near the original maximum. Breaking the 94,000 USD level should theoretically open the way to the liquidity zone at 98,000 USD.

Trader Daan Crypto Trades points out that the support area around 98,000 USD is one of the key institutional capital accumulation zones. Retesting this level under current low liquidity conditions could trigger significant price movements.

Institutional behavior: slow pace versus strategic accumulation

Daily purchases of Bitcoin by large institutional players have clearly slowed down. This change in pace suggests that before the end of the year, institutions may be cautious about large positions. At the same time, the probability that MicroStrategy will buy over 1,000 bitcoins this week is about 65% – still a significant indicator of interest.

The macroeconomic context is turning against short-term optimism. Uncertain path of Fed rate cuts and significant downward revisions of forecasts for 2026 weaken traditional arguments for growth in non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.

Risk factors: last week of the year as a liquidity trap

Time remaining until the end of the year is minimal. For Bitcoin to reach 100,000 USD, it would need to jump over 10% while tightening capital ties – a scenario history does not favor. The holiday period traditionally involves reduced liquidity, which amplifies price swings even with average trading volumes.

Geopolitical and regulatory risks remain on the horizon, discouraging speculators from aggressive positions at higher price levels.

Two-year outlook: Bitcoin changing the cycle

Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity sees fundamental regularities in the data. Over 145 weeks from 2022 to 2025, Bitcoin achieved a 105% compounded annual growth rate – a result consistent with the long-term regression model. Despite a potential correction to the range of 65,000–75,000 USD in 2026, historically these levels have served as zones for resuming accumulation.

Julien Bittel from Global Macro Investor goes further, suggesting that the traditional four-year halving cycle is losing significance. Extended debt refinancing cycles and changing liquidity dynamics could maintain the current market structure at least until 2026, with Bitcoin potentially reaching 300,000 USD by 2029.

Summary: a coin hanging in the air

The moment of the end of 2025 reflects the complexity of the cryptocurrency market dynamics. Bitcoin at $90.69K balances between a lack of upward momentum and no compelling reasons for deep declines. Instead of radical moves, we see consolidation – a process in which both bulls and bears are waiting.

The 90,000 USD level has become a psychological equilibrium threshold, while 80,000 USD is the last line of defense for bullish sentiment. Numbers from the prediction market clearly show: the market is now voting not for rapid growth but for disciplined stability.