Bitcoin correction in November 2025: analysis of the expected bottom around $82,000

Current data describe an oversold market, but not yet in extreme panic

In the last days of November 2025, Bitcoin experienced its most severe monthly crash since the start of the bullish cycle. After reaching a historic peak of $126,080 in October, the price fell below critical psychological levels, touching lows around $85,000 with a total loss of over 30% from the highs. Current data provide an interesting technical picture:

• Today’s quote: around $90,690
• 24-hour fluctuation: from $90,240 to $92,520
• Weekly movement: -2.35% over the past seven days
• Market capitalization: $1,811.50 billion
• Daily volume: $768.63 million

The 14-day RSI indicator has fallen below the 30 threshold, confirming a technical oversold condition. However, volumes have simultaneously shown an increase in trading activity, a signal that potentially anticipates a stabilization phase. Unlike historical panics where institutional investors flee along with retail, this time large holders continued to accumulate during the decline, reversing the net selling trend that characterized the entire previous year.

The correction follows the historical pattern of post-halving bull markets

Bitcoin’s fourth halving was completed on April 20, 2024, when the price was around $64,500. From previous cycle histories, regularities emerge:

2012-2013 cycle: Halving in November 2012 → peak in December 2013 with a 9,000% gain
2016-2017 cycle: Halving in July 2016 → peak in December 2017 (19 months later), gain of 2,900%
2020-2021 cycle: Halving in May 2020 → peak in November 2021 (18 months later), gain of 1,800%
2024-2025 cycle: Halving in April 2024 → intermediate high already reached in October 2025 (18 months later) at $126,080

The current correction of 32% from the all-time high fits perfectly within the Fibonacci retracement at level 0.382, very similar to significant corrections of 54% (May-July 2021) and 40% (January-February 2018), which preceded the last bullish pushes of each cycle.

Technical support levels and bottom forecast

Analyzing daily charts and retracement structures from the 2022 bear minimum to the 2025 maximum, a consensus on key levels emerges:

Likely bottom zone: $78,000–$84,000, with the highest probability concentration between $81,000–$82,000

Expected time window: from mid-December 2025 to January 2026, with the most probable moment around the holiday season

Three scenarios with different probabilities:

Base scenario (70% probability): The bottom will settle around $81,000–$84,000 towards the end of December, triggered by the end of retail ETF outflows, RSI dropping below 25 (extreme oversold condition), and continued whale address accumulation.

Bullish scenario (20% probability): The bottom is already reached in mid-December around $85,000–$88,000, with an immediate V-shaped rebound due to favorable political catalysts for cryptocurrencies.

Bearish scenario (10% probability): The bottom falls to $68,000–$74,000 only in February-March 2026, should the Federal Reserve maintain a restrictive stance or if geopolitical conflicts intensify.

What will happen after the bottom: catalysts for the next rally

Five structural factors will drive the bullish movement in 2026:

Acceleration of institutional and sovereign adoption: Data show that MicroStrategy holds over 400,000 BTC, while Japanese pension funds, Norwegian sovereign funds, and other major institutional players increased their positions significantly during 2025. 2026 will mark the zero year of a potential “race among modern states to accumulate Bitcoin.”

Return of institutional capital to ETFs: During the recent panic wave, retail investors liquidated about $4 billion in spot BTC/ETH ETFs, while institutions did not follow. Historically, every retail panic moment coincides with the preferred buying opportunity for large operators. As soon as the fear/greed index drops below 10 points, institutional flows will quickly resume.

Delayed effect of post-halving supply shock: The new daily issuance has decreased from 900 to 450 BTC after April 2024, but the real impact on markets and prices begins to be fully felt only from October 2025 onward. Historically, the peak of post-halving cycles occurs 18–22 months after the event. Current data show that 76% of Bitcoin is held by long-term holders, with circulating supply in constant contraction: the strongest possible signal for a bull market.

Continuation of accommodative monetary policy: The Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates by 150 basis points in 2025, and analysts expect the stance to remain favorable during 2026. Since the historical correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index is 0.85, the Nasdaq’s return to all-time highs should also lift cryptocurrencies.

Renewal of macro narrative: Studies from various financial institutions project Bitcoin’s price toward much higher targets by the end of 2026:

• Specialized analysts estimate ranges between $180,000 and $350,000
• Several independent reports converge around $250,000–$300,000
• Some more aggressive experts even forecast $350,000 during 2026

Entry strategies according to risk profile

Those wishing to position themselves before the expected rebound can do so according to their risk tolerance:

Aggressive investors: Can start building positions already at current levels ($85,000–$86,000) with a 10–20% exposure

Prudent investors: Wait for a further retracement to $81,000–$82,000 to build 30–40% positions

Conservative investors: Wait for the support of $80,000 to be broken and accumulate between $77,000–$79,000 with over 50% exposure

Recommended stop loss: Set a protective order at $72,000; if this level is decisively broken, the main bullish thesis would be compromised (less than 8% probability)

Conclusion: the gift of a 30% decline

The 30% drop recorded in November 2025 represents an opportunity for those still willing to hop on the last train of this bullish cycle, not the bell signaling the end. All technical indicators converge, on-chain data show bullish behaviors, historical precedents support this reading, and favorable policy expectations remain intact.

When financial markets are dominated by fear, the best moments for long positions in Bitcoin’s history have always emerged. The maximum profits have never been realized during applause and euphoria, but in dark moments when sentiment was at its lowest.