Rebirth Hypothesis: Will Hyperliquid be the leader among DEXs by the end of the year?

Amid the dynamic changes in the decentralized derivatives market, Hyperliquid has experienced a significant shift in its position — from an 80% market share to 20% during the second half of 2025. However, behind these figures lies a more complex picture: a transition from a user-oriented model to an infrastructure platform. Understanding this transformation is critical for assessing the protocol’s prospects in the coming year.

First Chapter: When One Player Dominated the Market

From 2023 to August 2025, Hyperliquid consistently expanded its position in the decentralized永續合約 market. This success was based on several structural prerequisites:

Liquidity Attraction Mechanisms — a points-based incentive system created a strong magnet for traders, encouraging them to accumulate activity on the platform.

First-mover Advantage — the launch of new trading pairs (such as $TRUMP, $BERA) often occurred precisely on Hyperliquid, transforming the platform into a pre-listing hub for other promising assets ($PUMP, $WLFI, XPL). Traders were compelled to migrate here to avoid missing opportunities.

Technical Excellence — the user interface, lower fee structure (compared to CEX), and continuous operation even during stressful market scenarios established a reputation as the most reliable platform.

Ecosystem Innovations — the launch of spot trading, integration of HyperEVM, and initial versions of Builder Codes expanded the range of use cases.

The result was a market share growth to a historic maximum of 80% in May 2025. During this period, the team clearly outpaced competitors in innovation speed.

Second Part: Transformation Period and Fluctuations

From May to December 2025, the market share fell from 80% to about 20%. This decline was the result of several interconnected factors:

Organizational Shift from Direct Service to Infrastructure. Instead of developing proprietary mobile apps or constantly launching new contracts, the team chose to position as an “AWS liquidity” — a platform for external developers. While this has long-term significance, in the short term, such a reorientation meant a slowdown in direct user engagement.

Competitors Filled the Vacuum — while Hyperliquid was reorienting, competitors (primarily Lighter, which expanded its arsenal to spot trading, stocks, and forex ), remained fully vertically integrated. This allowed them to release new products faster and maintain liquidity. Lighter independently reached about 25% market share, mainly due to active incentive programs ahead of the TGE season.

Liquidity as a Hired Resource — in DeFi, a significant portion of volumes results from farming points for airdrops. The shift of traders to platforms with active incentives demonstrates this principle. After the launch of LIGHT tokens, a reverse outflow is expected as incentive programs conclude.

Third Vector: Counting Down to the New Year as a Recovery Period

Despite current fluctuations, Hyperliquid’s fundamental position remains resilient. Indeed, competitors have copied current products, but true innovation continues to originate from Hyperliquid.

HIP-3 as a Driver of a New Cycle. This protocol allows third-party developers to launch their own永續交易 markets. Currently, active participants include:

• @tradexyz with永續合約
• @hyenatrade with a terminal for USDe
• @ventuals with access to IPO before official listing
• @trovemarkets with specialized niche markets (even on Pokémon or CS:GO assets)

Volumes through HIP-3 are growing dynamically, and experts forecast that by 2026, these markets will constitute a significant part of Hyperliquid’s total trading volume.

Builder Codes as an Effect Multiplier. Any frontend integrated with Hyperliquid (Phantom, MetaMask, BasedApp) gains instant access to all HIP-3 markets. This creates a positive cycle: developers are motivated to launch markets via HIP-3 because they are automatically propagated throughout the entire ecosystem of compatible applications.

Builder Codes revenue demonstrates steady growth, and the number of daily active users is also expanding. This trend indicates that the infrastructure approach is gradually transforming into a competitive advantage.

Looking Ahead: Super-Apps and Scaling

Current Builder Codes users are mainly crypto-native ecosystems (wallets, aggregators). However, the next development phase is possible through the emergence of a class of specialized super-apps that will deliver value to users unfamiliar with crypto.

By the end of the year, these apps could become a key factor in restoring Hyperliquid’s leadership position. The “AWS liquidity” model is not optimal for short-term growth, but in the long term, it positions the protocol as a core node of the global financial infrastructure — an even more ambitious goal than simply maintaining market share.

Currently, HYPE’s market share stands at 0.70%, reflecting the current reassessment of opportunities in this new cycle.