Bitcoin around $90K k when the global market is quiet: What threshold will trigger a turning point?

Since recent weeks, Bitcoin [BTC] has been stuck in a narrow trading range from $85k to $90k. Currently, the leading cryptocurrency is hovering around the $90.69K mark, with a 24-hour volatility of -0.22%. However, more noteworthy is the silence from regional stock markets — a signal that investors should pay attention to.

Adding context from the stock market - What warning signs?

Although Bitcoin has its own trend, Asian stock indices are showing unusual silence at the end of the year. The S&P 500 and SSE Composite Index only fluctuate by 0.15%, while the KOSPI Composite Index is at a similar level. Even the more volatile Nikkei 225 has only decreased by 0.37% (187 points).

This silence is not an optimistic sign. In fact, it indicates thin liquidity — when capital withdraws from traditional investment channels. And Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, often becomes the first place to experience outflows.

Logarithmic volatility: Dangerous warning from data

Bitcoin’s actual volatility (measured under logarithmic conditions) has surged since October, reaching the highest levels since March-April. This is not a benign signal — higher logarithmic volatility means systemic risks are accumulating, with the potential for sharp and unexpected price reversals.

Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have been continuously withdrawn over 7 trading days (from 18 to 29/12). This reflects a harsh reality: the selling side is gaining momentum, and demand is declining.

Liquidation zones: Hidden “price squeeze” areas

In recent days, every attempt by Bitcoin to break through resistance zones $90k has been strongly pushed back. Conversely, levels like $85k and $84.5k have shown strong attraction. These zones are not just numbers — they are “magnets” where heavy liquidation orders are concentrated.

In the current thin liquidity environment, any trading volume that breaks the $94.5k mark or falls below $85k could trigger a chain of automatic liquidations.

What to expect next week? Waiting for volume signals

A clear directional trend has yet to emerge, but signals from Farside Investors and Glassnode suggest a bleak picture. Thin liquidity combined with high logarithmic volatility indicates a major turning point is ahead — whether it will be a breakout or a collapse depends on each breach of the trading range.

Bitcoin is expected to continue “consolidating” within a narrow range until a strong force can break through one of the main support/resistance levels. The market is in a waiting state — waiting until someone dares to bet large amounts of money.

Conclusion: Bitcoin is currently vulnerable to sudden price shocks, with logarithmic volatility at warning levels and clear selling pressure dominating the spot ETF market.