H shows activity in the market – will Fibonacci levels determine the next direction?

Humanity Protocol is confidently moving in an upward trend, but traders face a critical question: will demand keep pace with the growth before a significant volume of tokens is unlocked?

As of January 12, H is trading at $0.17 with a daily increase of +1.43%. Trading volumes amount to $794.12K over the last 24 hours, indicating steady market participant activity. However, this is only a small part of the bigger picture, which is shaped by technical factors and fundamental risks.

Technical Analysis: When the Moment of Truth Arrives

The daily chart of H shows a strong recovery movement that began in December. RSI is at 60, signaling continued bullish momentum without overbought conditions. At the same time, OBV is approaching a local maximum, reflecting increasing buying pressure in the market.

However, resistance remains a real obstacle. The price is currently trading within the $0.15-$0.18 range, where the upper boundary ($0.18) serves as a key resistance. If bulls manage to break through this level, the next targets will be higher levels. Conversely, a break below $0.15 would be a warning of a renewed bearish control.

Traders using Fibonacci retracement levels should consider the levels at $0.112 and $0.083. These positions could serve as support during market correction or as zones for deeper declines.

Token Unlocks: Threat or Opportunity?

The most significant risk remains the planned unlock of 105.35 million H worth $17.56 million on January 25. According to Tokenomist, this is part of the monthly token unlocking schedule.

Historically, such unlocks do not always lead to immediate price collapse. The previous unlock on December 25 was successfully absorbed by the market, demonstrating demand for the token. Currently, only 18.25% of the total supply is in circulation (according to current data), while the rest remains locked. This means the dilution impact will be gradual rather than abrupt.

Nevertheless, the accumulation of unlocked tokens over time will create a long-term obstacle to price trends. Demand must continually grow to offset the constant increase in supply.

Scenario Development in the Coming Weeks

Open interest in H recently jumped from $48.5 million to $57.5 million, indicating speculative enthusiasm. However, such spikes often precede corrections. A significant portion of this open interest could be liquidated if the market reacts to the token unlock with an unexpected sell-off.

In shorter timeframes, traders will have opportunities to test the range extremes. Moving above $0.18 will pave the way for more aggressive buyers. On the other hand, falling below $0.15 will require close attention to Fibonacci levels at $0.112 and $0.083.

Final Conclusion

The upward trend of Humanity Protocol has real potential, but it faces objective risks in the form of token unlocks. The key to success is sustained demand, which must grow faster than the rate of market capitalization dilution.

Traders should monitor H’s positioning relative to critical resistance and support levels. The coming weeks will provide a clear answer on the token’s ability to maintain an upward trajectory.