The 2026 Cryptocurrency Asset Road to Practical Application Era: Transition from Speculation to Utility

Year-end institutional reports are being released intensively. CoinShares, a European digital asset investment firm managing over $6 billion, has published its “2026 Outlook Report,” which sends a clear signal— the crypto asset industry is bidding farewell to pure speculation narratives.

This comprehensive analysis covers core topics such as macroeconomics, Bitcoin’s strategic position, DeFi ecosystems, public chain competition, and regulatory evolution. Its core judgments merit in-depth interpretation.

The Decisive Shift from Speculation to Utility

2025 marks a watershed year for the industry. Bitcoin hits a new all-time high, but more importantly, capital flows have undergone a qualitative change—from gambling on price volatility to seeking real-world applications and cash flows.

CoinShares believes 2026 will be the “Year of Utility Winning.” This is not just a slogan but supported by concrete data: more protocols are generating annual revenues in the billions of dollars; Hyperliquid distributes 99% of its earnings to token holders for buybacks; Uniswap, Lido, and others have launched similar mechanisms. Tokens are evolving from pure speculative assets to quasi-equity assets.

The key transformation lies in mindset: the industry used to aim to “replace” traditional finance; now it is about “upgrading” and “modernizing” existing systems. Public blockchains are deeply integrating with institutional liquidity, regulatory market structures, and real economy use cases.

Macro Environment: Both Risks and Opportunities

The Federal Reserve is expected to cautiously cut interest rates, with the target rate possibly falling to the mid-3% range, but at a slow pace. Under this uncertainty, the market has three expectations for Bitcoin:

• Optimistic scenario (soft landing + productivity surprise): Bitcoin could surge above $150,000
• Base case (slow expansion): trading range of $110,000–$140,000
• Bearish scenario (recession or stagflation): drop to $70,000–$100,000

Even more favorable is the gradual erosion of the US dollar’s reserve status. The dollar’s share in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen from 70% in 2000 to the current mid-50%. Emerging market central banks are diversifying holdings, increasing RMB and gold reserves. This creates a structural tailwind for Bitcoin and other non-sovereign assets.

The Irreversible Progress of Bitcoin Institutionalization

By the end of 2025, the US has achieved several key breakthroughs:

• Approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, attracting about $13 billion in inflows
• Maturation of top-tier ETF options markets
• Adoption of fair value accounting for enterprises
• The US government designates Bitcoin as strategic reserves

While these developments seem favorable, reality is more complex. The Bitcoin holdings of listed companies surged from 266,000 BTC in 2024 to 1,048,000 BTC (total value $90.7 billion), but are highly concentrated—MicroStrategy accounts for 61%, the top ten companies control 84%.

What does this imply? The risk of forced selling is emerging. If mNAV approaches 1x or low-cost financing becomes unavailable, companies may be forced to liquidate Bitcoin. In such cases, volatility could even serve as a contrarian indicator. In fact, the development of options markets has already suppressed Bitcoin volatility, and declining volatility may weaken convertible bond demand, impacting corporate purchasing power—a subtle negative feedback loop.

The Real Drama of Stablecoins and Corporate Payments

The stablecoin market size has exceeded $300 billion, with Tether (USDT) accounting for 60% and Circle (USDC) for 25%. New entrants find it difficult to break through due to network effects.

However, enterprise adoption is the real focus:

Payment processors like Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe have structural advantages, enabling seamless switching to stablecoin settlements without changing front-end user experience.

Banking systems show promising results: JPMorgan Chase’s JPM Coin performs well. A report from German industrial giant Siemens shows up to 50% savings in foreign exchange costs, with settlement times shortened from days to seconds.

E-commerce has real-world cases: Shopify supports USDC checkout; markets in Asia and Latin America are piloting stablecoin payment providers.

But there are concerns: if the Fed cuts rates to 3%, stablecoin issuers would need to issue an additional $887 billion in stablecoins to maintain current interest income. The revenue model’s fragility is beginning to show.

Tokenized Assets: From Trillions to Quadrillions

The tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) has surged from $150 billion at the start of 2025 to $350 billion. Private credit and US Treasury tokenization are growing fastest; gold tokens exceed $1.3 billion.

BlackRock’s BUIDL Fund and JPMorgan’s JPMD tokenized deposits demonstrate institutional-level application potential. More interestingly, decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid have monthly trading volumes exceeding $600 billion, and Solana’s daily trading volume reaches $400 billion—high-performance public chains have become infrastructure-level choices.

Public Chain Competition: Ethereum Still Dominates, but Solana Approaching

Ethereum is achieving scalability through a Layer-2 roadmap centered on rollups. Layer-2 throughput has jumped from 200 TPS a year ago to 4,800 TPS. The US Ethereum spot ETF has attracted $13 billion in inflows. In institutional tokenization, Ethereum has established a dominant position.

Solana, on the other hand, pursues high-performance single-threaded execution, accounting for about 7% of DeFi’s total TVL. Stablecoin supply has exploded from $1.8 billion in January 2024 to over $12 billion; RWA projects are expanding rapidly. After BlackRock’s BUIDL launched a spot ETF in October 2025, it attracted a net inflow of $382 million. Upgrades like Firedancer client and DoubleZero validator network further enhance performance.

Next-generation Layer-1 chains like Sui, Aptos, Sei, and Monad compete through architectural differentiation, but market fragmentation is evident. EVM compatibility has become a key advantage.

Regulatory Frameworks Take Shape: EU’s MiCA Leading, US Multi-Agency Collaboration

The EU has the most comprehensive legal framework for crypto assets—MiCA covers issuance, custody, trading, and stablecoins. However, in 2025, coordination challenges emerged, with some national agencies potentially challenging cross-border passports.

In the US, regulation remains fragmented: SEC, CFTC, and Federal Reserve operate independently. However, legislation for stablecoins (GENIUS Act) has passed and is progressing, creating new compliance demands for issuers—requiring US Treasury reserves.

Asia is moving toward cautious regulation. Hong Kong and Japan are advancing Basel III crypto capital and liquidity requirements; Singapore maintains a risk-based licensing system.

Mining Industry Transitions: From Mining to High-Performance Computing Centers

In 2025, listed miners’ hash rate grew by 110 EH/s, but a bigger story is in the backend—miners have signed HPC (High-Performance Computing) contracts worth $650 billion. By the end of 2026, Bitcoin mining revenue share is expected to drop from 85% to below 20%, while HPC business profit margins could reach 80–90%.

The future of mining will feature diversified models: ASIC manufacturers, modular mining, intermittent mining, and HPC coexistence, along with sovereign nation mining. Long-term, mining may revert to small-scale decentralized operations.

Market Outlook: Mainstream Adoption on the Horizon

During the 2024 US election, Polymarket’s weekly trading volume exceeded $800 million, and the enthusiasm remains strong post-election. Its predictive accuracy has been validated: about 60% of 60% probability events occur, and about 77–82% of 80% probability events occur.

In October 2025, ICE made a $2 billion strategic investment in Polymarket, marking mainstream financial institutions’ recognition. Weekly trading volume is expected to surpass $2 billion in 2026. This signals the prediction market’s transition from fringe application to mainstream tool.

Venture Capital Reignites

Crypto venture funding reached $188 billion, surpassing the full-year 2024 total of $165 billion. Major deals include: Polymarket’s $20 billion strategic investment, Stripe’s Tempo raising $5 billion, and Kalshi’s $3 billion.

Four major trends to watch in 2026:

1. RWA Tokenization: Securitize’s SPAC, Agora’s $50 million Series A demonstrate institutional interest
2. AI and Crypto Fusion: AI agents, natural language trading interfaces accelerate adoption
3. Retail Investment Platforms: Echo (acquired by Coinbase for $375 million), Legion, and other decentralized angel investing platforms rise
4. Bitcoin Infrastructure: Layer-2 and Lightning Network projects attract attention

Increasing Competition Among Trading Platforms, Integration Imminent

Existing competitors’ fees have dropped to single-digit basis points. The threat from new entrants is significant—traditional financial institutions like Morgan Stanley E*TRADE and JPMorgan Chase are preparing to enter. Stablecoin issuers (e.g., Circle) are enhancing control via the Arc mainnet. Revenue-sharing agreements between Coinbase and Circle for USDC are crucial.

Industry consolidation is expected to accelerate in 2026, with trading platforms and large banks acquiring users, licenses, and infrastructure through mergers and acquisitions. Institutional clients account for over 80% of Coinbase’s trading volume, wielding strong bargaining power, while retail users are price-sensitive. Decentralized exchanges, prediction markets, and CME crypto derivatives pose alternative threats.

Key Insights

2026 will be a pivotal year for the crypto asset industry:

Acceleration of Maturity—tokens increasingly resemble equity assets; cash flow and real-world applications become core valuation factors

Rise of Hybrid Finance—stablecoins, tokenized assets, and on-chain applications grow strongly, no longer theoretical

Regulatory Clarity Improves—Genius Act, MiCA, and Asia’s cautious regulatory frameworks lay foundations for institutional adoption

Gradual but Certain Institutional Adoption—structural barriers are removed; actual adoption will still take years, making 2026 a key year for private sector gradual progress

Reshaping the Competitive Landscape—Ethereum remains dominant, but high-performance chains like Solana are approaching; EVM compatibility becomes a competitive advantage

Risks and Opportunities Coexist—corporate token holdings pose forced selling risks, but institutional-grade tokenization, stablecoin adoption, and prediction markets contain huge growth potential

Overall, crypto assets are experiencing a transition from fringe to mainstream, from speculation to utility, and from fragmentation to integration. In 2026, utility will truly become the core metric for asset valuation.