Venezuela's political upheaval, why has the oil market remained largely unaffected?

Regime changes typically trigger intense volatility in energy markets, and this time is no exception—the situation has changed dramatically. However, interestingly, global oil prices have remained surprisingly stable.

The reasons behind this are worth noting. U.S. shale oil production continues to expand, Middle Eastern supply chains remain relatively stable, and the buffering effect of international reserves provides the market with sufficient resilience. Although Venezuela possesses the world's largest crude oil reserves, its production share has significantly declined, limiting the impact of any single geopolitical event.

For investors focused on macro cycles and asset allocation, this case reminds us that surface-level political turbulence often diverges from actual market supply and demand dynamics. The future direction of energy prices ultimately depends on global economic growth, U.S. dollar policies, and long-term supply-side changes.