Bitcoin hovers around $90,000: Is the selling resistance the start of a reversal or a false signal?

The market awaits a directional impulse – signals are mixed

Bitcoin is trading around 90,68K USD, recording a slight decrease of 0,28% over the past day. Although yesterday we observed a rebound driven by spot demand, current market conditions remain uncertain. Asian markets are opening in a scene where selling pressure is noticeably weakening, but investors are waiting for clear signals confirming a trend reversal.

Key observations indicate that the market has shifted from an intense selling phase to a consolidation phase. Capital flows, which in November reached over 1.1 billion USD in redemptions, show early signs of stabilization – on December 9, 56.5 million USD flowed into Bitcoin ETFs in the USA. This is a change, but is it enough to trigger another rally?

Short-term holder supply still dominates – market structure remains vulnerable

On-chain analysis reveals a fundamental problem: short-term Bitcoin holders still account for most market activity. The CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) indicator, which measures cumulative buying versus selling pressure, remains deeply negative despite yesterday’s rebound.

The number of active addresses on the Bitcoin blockchain hovers around cyclical lows, indicating weak institutional activity. The realized market capitalization has increased by only 0.7% – an unmistakable signal: there is a lack of structural interest in acquiring assets at current price levels.

The distribution of open positions in futures contracts suggests a defensive stance: traders are still paying a premium for protection against declines rather than building bullish positions. The volatility spread is heavily discounted, confirming widespread caution in the market.

Ethereum weaker than Bitcoin – 3.11K USD with a downside

Ethereum is performing worse, trading around 3,11K USD with a 24-hour decline of 0,13%. Although yesterday’s session in the USA saw a 6% increase, the current direction is changing as investor caution strengthens. Short positions in ETH have clearly been exhausted.

Other assets: gold tests the 4200 USD level

Gold remains supported by current US labor market data and the scenario of further interest rate cuts by the Fed. It trades above the 4200 USD level, although before Wednesday’s policy decision, momentum remains limited.

Asian stock markets showed mixed results – Nikkei 225 rose by 0,82% in anticipation of Chinese inflation data and the expected 0,25% Fed rate cut.

What will change the direction of the Bitcoin market?

Current data suggest that Bitcoin’s rebound results more from the exhaustion of selling pressure than from institutional demand. Until ETF flows become consistently positive at a level noticeable to US investors, and on-chain activity strengthens, the market will drift sideways.

A clearer directional move requires a change in behavior from both long-term holders and institutional allocators. For now, such signals are lacking. The supply structure remains fragile, and the market remains sensitive to any impulse – upward or downward.

The 14-day RSI has returned to the average range, indicating that Bitcoin rebounded from the most stretched conditions of the previous week, but this is no guarantee of a sustained rise without support from fundamental demand factors.