Recently, Bitcoin has been crashing, and altcoins are even worse, but have you ever wondered what the real culprit is?

Many people stare at the K-line chart all day, looking at head and shoulders patterns, breaking support levels, but they completely fail to realize that the market is being controlled by an invisible giant hand—the forced liquidation of yen arbitrage trades.

How has it been played in recent years? Global institutions borrow yen at almost zero cost and then pour large sums into high-yield assets like US stocks and cryptocurrencies. This model worked well for years until the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.75% in December. Suddenly, the advantage of yen financing was completely destroyed.

The logic is simple and brutal: borrowed yen must be repaid, and repayment requires selling assets. High-liquidity assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum naturally became the first targets of forced selling. So what you see as "market dumps" are not collective bearishness or panic, but systemic forced bloodletting. US debt crashes, US stocks fall, and cryptocurrencies also suffer.

Data speaks for itself—the US spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a net outflow of $243 million in a single day. This scale cannot be caused by retail panic selling; it is an orderly withdrawal of institutional funds. Because of this, the market looks neither like a crash (no panic-driven plunge) nor has it gained upward momentum (forced bloodletting is ongoing).

But what if you extend the timeline? It’s a completely different picture.

Veteran Wall Street investor Tom Lee has long pointed out that: historical patterns show that major rallies in gold typically lead risk assets by 6 to 12 months. Bloomberg data indicates that gold is gradually replacing the dollar as the new global reserve asset anchor.

And what about Bitcoin? It is the digital age’s gold. More and more countries and institutions are treating Bitcoin as another form of digital gold for allocation.

In the short term, liquidity is being drained, and prices are under pressure—that’s the current reality. But if we look at the medium or even long-term framework, once the safe-haven cycle ends, liquidity is replete, and risk appetite restarts, Bitcoin is highly likely to be the first risk asset to rebound.

So now, the real question is no longer the tired old question of "Will Bitcoin go up again?" The real question is—when the market hands you cheap chips, do you have the courage to take them?

Market opportunities are always reserved for those willing to take action.