Recently, major global financial institutions have collectively changed their tone, with significant shifts in the expected timeline for Federal Reserve rate cuts. How substantial are these changes? The data tells the story.

Citibank originally anticipated rate cuts in January, March, and September, but now expects them in March, July, and September. Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast from rate cuts in March and June to June and September. Barclays updated its expectations to June and December, while Morgan Stanley changed its plan from January and April to June and September. The most aggressive change comes from JPMorgan — completely removing all rate cut expectations for 2026 and even considering the possibility of rate hikes in 2027.

The logic behind these changes is quite clear. First, the timing of rate cuts has been pushed back across the board, from earlier expectations at the beginning of the year to the second quarter or even later. Second, the number of rate cuts has significantly decreased, with the frequency becoming less dense. Third, signals from institutions like JPMorgan are especially noteworthy — shifting from expecting rate cuts to possibly raising rates, reflecting a new understanding among major banks about inflation stickiness.

Market interpretations are straightforward: financial institutions’ concerns about inflation are intensifying, and economic resilience is far exceeding previous expectations. The Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates for a longer period. What could this lead to? The US dollar is likely to continue strengthening, putting noticeable pressure on cross-asset allocations. Crypto assets, growth stocks, and small-cap stocks, which are sensitive to interest rates, should be particularly watched.

An analyst’s comment is very apt: "This is not just a delay, but a complete reversal of market expectations." This means all asset prices need to be readjusted. From rushing to cut rates to waiting and possibly raising them, the market’s rhythm has completely changed within a month. Every economic data release could trigger intense volatility.

It’s important to note that while predictions from major banks are significant, they do not necessarily reflect the Federal Reserve’s final actions. However, the overall direction has definitely shifted, without a doubt.