2026-01-12 13:28:05

Tomorrow night at 21:30 US December CPI data release will be the most significant macro event of the week.

Honestly, the absolute value of this data itself isn't that critical anymore. The entire market has already prepared a scenario: the Federal Reserve will definitely enter a loosening cycle next year. The question isn't "whether" but "when" and "how strong." So the real focus for tomorrow is whether the CPI will further confirm this expectation, anchoring the rate cut timetable earlier and increasing the certainty of funds. This is the deeper logic that can drive the market.

But I think what's more interesting is how the market will react to this data.

The current situation is a bit delicate: once the data is released, US stocks are likely to fluctuate wildly. The question is—will Bitcoin and other mainstream cryptocurrencies still be led by US stocks as they have been before? Or has this round of institutional funds become strong enough to stand independently? If, after the data is released, Bitcoin can withstand the shock, with a decline significantly smaller than US stocks, or even quickly stabilize and rebound, then this is no small matter. It would prove that the underlying market fund structure has undergone a qualitative change.

Let me break it down by scenarios:

**Scenario 1**: The data is nothing special

Market reactions will be muted, and focus will naturally shift back to the crypto space—fund flows, ecosystem progress, on-chain activity. This could actually be more favorable.

**Scenario 2**: Data exceeds expectations and is optimistic

This will directly intensify expectations of easing. All risk assets will benefit, including the crypto market. This is the best-case scenario.

**Scenario 3**: Data is unexpectedly poor

This is a real stress test. But don’t panic. If this happens, you need to focus on two details: the decline comparison between Bitcoin, US stocks, and gold, and the buying power of Bitcoin ETFs during the dip.

If the data collapses but Bitcoin’s decline is shallower, and ETFs strongly support at low levels, then you should be excited—because this indicates the market structure is extremely healthy. The long-term upward logic remains intact, and the decline becomes an opportunity to accumulate at low levels.

The core point is this: whether the decline becomes a reason to flee or a chance to buy in depends entirely on the attitude of institutional funds.

BTC3,2%

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BugBountyHunter

· 4h ago

I'm actually more concerned about whether those ETF institutions will go on a buying spree at the low levels. If that's the case, I wouldn't be afraid of a decline.

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NFTFreezer

· 14h ago

The key still depends on whether institutions will step in; this is the true watershed. Have institutions really become stronger? We'll see tomorrow. Basically, it's a signal—watch how Bitcoin decouples from the US stock market. A shallow dip is actually more satisfying; the opportunity to buy the dip at low levels has arrived. Can institutional funds be independent this round? The interrogation begins tomorrow night. Is Bitcoin tough or not? Let's test it at 21:30 tomorrow. Once again, macro factors are stirring the pot; I dislike this kind of uncertainty. Poor data actually signals a bottom; just thinking about it makes me excited. I just want to see if the coin and the US stock market are still linked or not.

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ApeWithNoChain

· 01-12 13:57

Honestly, I'm more concerned about how institutions will absorb the positions tomorrow rather than the data itself. Which is more important. I'm tired of waiting; let's see if BTC can break away from US stocks and move independently. That will be the real sign of market maturity. Even if the data is poor, I won't panic. As long as ETFs are still buying at low levels, it's good news. That would be the true window for building positions.

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AirdropHarvester

· 01-12 13:47

Oh forget it, instead of obsessing over CPI, it's better to see if institutions are still willing to step in Honestly, the current market situation depends on whether ETFs dare to buy the dip during a decline—that's the real story Oh my, I have to stay up late again to watch the data, might as well go all in directly CPI? I only care if institutional funds are running away; that's the key Tomorrow's move will be a litmus test; the crypto circle will either grow independently or continue to be dragged down by the US stock market, it's obvious at a glance Actually, no matter what the data says, it's not important; what's crucial is whether the underlying fund structure has truly changed Don't rush to buy the dip yet; you need to see how aggressive the ETF moves are Forget about these macro data; they are just a cover. The real game is on the institutional side

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LayerHopper

· 01-12 13:45

Tomorrow's data will show whether institutions can still hold up; if BTC's decline is smaller than that of US stocks, it will be a true signal of a qualitative change.

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SchrödingersNode

· 01-12 13:37

Tomorrow's data is really just a prelude; the key is whether BTC can break away from the independent trend of US stocks, which would truly indicate that institutions have arrived.

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