Recently, Bitcoin has been weak, and altcoins are following suit, with an atmosphere of anxiety permeating the market. But upon closer inspection, the true driver behind this decline isn't primarily technical or emotional, but a larger macro event — the systematic liquidation of yen arbitrage positions.

In recent years, global funds have been playing an arbitrage game: borrowing cheap yen and then investing in high-yield assets like US stocks and cryptocurrencies. The business was very comfortable until December, when the Bank of Japan suddenly raised interest rates to 0.75%. This move broke the entire arbitrage chain. Since the cost of borrowing yen skyrocketed, funds were forced to sell assets to repay debts. Bitcoin and altcoins, due to their liquidity and volatility, naturally became the first targets for liquidation — this isn't institutional bearishness, but a passive stop-loss.

This isn't just a crypto market issue. US Treasuries and US stocks are also under pressure. A major exchange's spot Bitcoin ETF saw a daily outflow of $243 million, clearly reflecting institutional capital fleeing systematically. The market is stuck here: it won't crash outright, and short-term rebounds are unlikely to be significant.

Looking at a different time scale, Wall Street veteran Tom Lee mentioned an observation — that parabolic rises in gold typically lead risk assets by 6 to 12 months. Currently, gold is replacing the dollar as the new global store of value. Many countries' institutions now see Bitcoin as digital gold, and this logical framework remains unchanged.

Short-term liquidity is indeed tight, but in the longer term, once risk aversion subsides, capital flows back, and risk appetite restarts, Bitcoin's position as a core asset remains. The real question isn't whether it will rise, but whether you have the courage to buy when low-position chips are in front of you.