ETH/USDT on the 15-minute K-line repeatedly explores the 3090-3130 range. The price barely stays above the EMA(7) moving average (3114.53), but both MACD and RSI indicators do not provide clear signals, and trading volume has not increased. From this pattern, the market currently lacks a unified direction judgment, with both bulls and bears holding their breath and waiting.

Two key technical points worth noting:

First is the support line at 3090—if it breaks, short-term stop-loss orders may trigger a chain reaction, quickly pushing the price down to 3070 or even 3050. Second is the resistance level at 3130; breaking through it requires a significant increase in trading volume, otherwise it may be a false breakout.

However, compared to these technical details, what is truly worth being cautious about is the macroeconomic changes. Although the crypto market emphasizes technical analysis, it is actually highly sensitive to macro sentiment, and sometimes one or two data points can rewrite the entire trend.

What should we focus on right now? The top priority is the US CPI data. If the data exceeds expectations, risk assets will face a collective sell-off, and ETH will almost certainly lose the 3090 support. Next is the Federal Reserve's policy guidance—if CPI remains strong, it will reinforce expectations of delayed rate cuts, leading to a strengthening dollar, which is a foregone conclusion. An appreciating dollar always puts pressure on crypto asset valuations.

Do not overlook subtle on-chain changes, such as a sudden increase in exchange net inflows or whales starting to reduce holdings. These signals often preempt a decline by hours or days. Considering all these factors together, short-term trading becomes quite challenging.