On-chain data has been quite active lately. Just looking at the ten hours of operations from today (January 12) from daytime to evening shows that the whale circle is a bit lively.

The bullish side is a bit mysterious. The "Lightning Reverse" trader is acting erratically—reducing BTC long positions on one hand, while opening a new long position of 16.96 BTC with 20x leverage. This kind of operation, fearing a dip but also betting on a rebound, basically shows a lack of confidence. At the same time, the "Strategy Opponent" trader simply ran away, closing his longs at breakeven and offloading nearly $80 million in positions, clearly sensing the risk. The only one who still gained something is the "Two Wins in Battle" trader, who closed 140 BTC longs and made $207,000, but in the face of a big market trend, this profit is really not much. He probably also feels the short-term ceiling has been reached.

On the bearish side, things are even more aggressive. The "20 Million Swing Hunter" is aggressively adding to short positions on altcoins like BNB and DOGE, with unrealized profits already reaching $7.43 million. This clearly indicates an attempt to target the rise of altcoins. Even more intense is the trader known as "30 Times Longs, Repeated Failures," who unexpectedly reversed and opened a short position on BTC, even rolling over and expanding his position to over $9.15 million—this guy has always lost when going long, but now suddenly turns to short. If he hasn't learned his lesson, he really believes the market trend is changing.

Looking at these signals, it's clear that whale intentions are diverging. Large funds are hesitating about when to move, but the fact that shorts are so aggressively increasing positions indicates that short-term market volatility will likely intensify. Altcoins are especially worth noting—since short-term unrealized profits are so substantial, a shift in sentiment could easily trigger a wave of declines. On the long side, many longs are reducing positions, and the high-leverage trader feels somewhat unsupported. If there are no new macro positive signals, the probability of BTC testing previous lows is quite high.

On-chain data doesn't lie—whales are adjusting risk allocations, shifting from mainstream coins' longs to altcoin shorts, which is a clear risk-avoidance signal. As an experienced trader who has gone through many cycles, my recent strategy is simple: stability. No chasing highs, no leverage, waiting for the market trend to become clearer before taking action. The probability of this wave of market movement is right here—stay alert.