US PCE data draws attention, crypto market liquidity game intensifies

As the December Federal Reserve policy meeting approaches, US inflation data once again becomes the market focus. The latest PPI and CPI indicators released on November 26 show that the September core PCE increased by 0.2% month-over-month, and the year-over-year rate fell back to 2.8%, with limited decline, reflecting persistent inflation stickiness. Although energy and food costs exert upward pressure on wholesale prices, most key service items within the PCE basket remain at recent levels. This data will serve as the final inflation assessment benchmark before the Federal Reserve’s December meeting.

Market participants are focused on the policy choice between rate cuts and maintaining the status quo. Politically, policymakers intervened more than a year early in the midterm elections, pushing for tax cuts and urging party candidates to emphasize “cost of living” issues, attempting to offset public pessimism about rising costs. However, polls indicate that the tax cut promises have not yet effectively translated into increased voter confidence, and the policy direction in the coming months remains uncertain.

Crypto Market: Range-bound Fluctuations and Liquidity Competition

In the crypto asset space, Bitcoin is currently trading around 90.61K USD, a clear upward move from the previous level of 87,700 USD. The 4-hour chart shows that the short-term structure remains in a range-bound state, with key resistance levels between 89,000 and 91,000 USD. Breaking above this range could open a liquidity window targeting 92,000 USD; support levels to watch are in the 84,000–84,800 USD zone, with a break below increasing the likelihood of a pullback to 82,500 USD.

Inflation Expectations and Market Consensus Interplay

The macro environment and inflation expectations have yet to align in a clear direction, leading to a short-term market pattern of liquidity cleansing and range volatility. The current market logic has shifted from policy orientation to “inflation stickiness relative to economic slowdown judgment,” with both bulls and bears engaged in fierce battles within critical liquidity zones.

According to Bitunix analysts, investors should pay close attention to the potential increase in price volatility risks ahead of the December policy implementation, as well as the risk appetite changes reflected by actual capital absorption in high-range zones. In the short term, the persistence of US PCE data and Federal Reserve policy signals will jointly determine the next direction of the crypto market.