26 Predictions for the crypto market in 2026: Bitcoin towards $250K the massive expansion of stablecoins

Galaxy Research’s Short-Term Outlook

After a volatile 2025 that saw Bitcoin (BTC) retreat from its all-time high of $126,080 in October to around $90,000, Galaxy Research analysts have published their most ambitious forward-looking analysis. Although the short-term market presents uncertainty, the fundamentals for 2026 and beyond point toward a profound transformation of the crypto ecosystem.

The main conclusion: Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2027, while 2026 will serve as a transition year toward widespread institutional adoption and integration with traditional finance.

The Enigma of Bitcoin’s Short-Term Price

Market options reveal an extremely polarized scenario for 2026. Traders are simultaneously betting on Bitcoin hitting $70,000 (possible drop) or recovering to $130,000 (strong rebound) by June. Even broader ranges for the end of the year ($50,000 to $250,000) reflect the disconnect between institutional optimism and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Upside risks dominate the long term: with institutional adoption solidified (reflected in ETFs attracting $141 billion in 2025), Bitcoin’s maturation as a hedge against monetary devaluation seems inevitable. However, the short term warrants caution.

Implied volatility in put options now exceeds that of call options, indicating that the market is evolving from emerging market dynamics toward traditional macro asset patterns. This institutional maturity, while reducing extreme speculation, also means less predictable movements.

The Changing of the Guard: From Protocols to Applications

A crucial transformation is underway. Value capture will massively migrate from base layers (Layer-1) to application layers during 2026. Revenues from DeFi, decentralized exchanges, and prediction platforms will surpass those of underlying infrastructure.

Solana emerges as the epicenter of this shift. Internet capital markets on the Solana chain (currently $750 millions) will reach $2 billion. On-chain economy is evolving from speculative models to businesses with real revenue, thanks to platforms like Hyperliquid that internalize direct monetization models.

At least one major Layer-1 blockchain will directly integrate an income-generating application into its protocol, directing benefits to the native token. MegaEth and other chains are exploring mechanisms where infrastructure fees return to token holders.

The Stablecoin Revolution: From Experiment to Infrastructure

Transaction volume in stablecoins will surpass the US ACH system during 2026. With stablecoins growing at annual rates of 30-40%, the expected approval of the GENIUS Act in spring 2026 will exponentially accelerate this trend.

But consolidation is inevitable. Despite the launch of multiple stablecoins backed by TradFi in 2025, the market cannot support dozens of options. Consumers will choose one or two dominant options. Nine major banks (including Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and others) are collaborating on a joint stablecoin for the G7, while PayPal and Paxos are joining forces in PYUSD.

A critical point: at least one of the world’s three major credit card networks will settle more than 10% of its cross-border volume via stablecoins on public blockchains. End users will not see crypto interfaces, but on the back-end, settlement between regional institutions will use tokenized dollars.

DeFi: From Experiment to $500 Billion

DAO governed by futarchy (prediction markets) will amass treasuries exceeding the $500 millions in 2026. This on-chain governance, tested on Solana and Optimism during 2025, will demonstrate its effectiveness for strategic capital allocation.

Crypto-collateralized loans in DeFi and CeFi will reach $90 billion. Simultaneously, lending rates will remain moderate (below 10%), thanks to the stability provided by institutional capital.

Trading volume on Polymarket, the leading prediction market, will surpass $1.5 billion weekly, driven by AI and greater capital efficiency.

Decentralized exchanges will capture more than 25% of spot volume. Currently accounting for 15-17%, but the advantages of KYC-free access and more efficient fee structures attract an increasing amount of activity.

Tokenization: The Big Game of 2026

The US SEC will issue a “no-action letter or innovation exemption” allowing tokenized securities to operate in DeFi. This measure will broadly open the crypto capital markets, enabling tokenized stocks and bonds to enter DeFi protocols.

Inevitably, demands from traditional financial participants will challenge these exemptions, arguing they lack comprehensive regulatory frameworks.

A major bank or broker will accept tokenized stocks as operational collateral, legitimizing the convergence between traditional finance and blockchains.

The ETF Boom and Crypto Banking

More than 50 spot ETFs for altcoins and 50 additional crypto products will launch in the US during 2026. In 2025, ETFs for Solana ($139.74 current), XRP ($2.04), Hedera ($0.11), Dogecoin ($0.14), Litecoin ($75.85), and Chainlink ($13.12) were approved.

Net inflows into crypto spot ETFs will exceed $50 billion, tripling the $23 billion in 2025. A major asset allocation platform will include Bitcoin in its standard model portfolio, granting access to millions of new investors.

More than 15 crypto companies will go public in the US, including candidates like CoinShares, BitGo, Chainalysis, and FalconX.

The Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT) Crisis (Digital Asset Treasuries)

The rise of digital asset treasury companies in 2025 was brief but intense. In 2026, more than five DATs will be forced to liquidate positions, be acquired, or shut down. DATs will need scale advantages (such as cumulative Bitcoin strategies) or geographic expansion (like in Asia) to survive. Most lacked coherent strategies since their launch.

Politics and Privacy

Some progressive Democrats, focused on the issue of “unbanking,” will begin to see cryptocurrencies as a solution. FinCEN’s warning about remittance transfers from undocumented immigrants could redefine the political coalition around blockchain.

The capitalization of privacy tokens (Zcash, Monero, Railgun) will surpass $100 billion, compared to the current $63 billion. As more funds are stored on-chain, demand for private transactions will grow exponentially.

The US government will initiate federal investigations into insider trading in on-chain prediction markets, replicating efforts against manipulation in sports leagues.

The Era of AI Agents

Payments according to the x402 standard will represent 30% of daily volume on Base and 5% on Solana, marking the mass adoption of autonomous agent interactions. As AI agents conduct increasingly independent transactions, standardized payment primitives will become core components of the execution layer.

Payment-focused blockchains like Tempo and Arc will experience accelerated growth.

Balance: Successes and Failures of 2025

Galaxy Research published 23 predictions for 2025 with mixed results. It was correct on:

• Institutional adoption of Bitcoin: Morgan Stanley and others recommended allocations of 2-4%
• Revenue distribution in DeFi exceeded $1 billion
• Futarchy governance was consolidated, especially on Solana
• Mining companies diversified into AI/HPC: 18 out of 20 announced it

But it failed on:

• Bitcoin did not reach $150,000 in H1, only hitting $126,080
• Spot ETFs did not attract $250 billion (they reached $141 billion)
• Ethereum staking did not reach 50% (only 29.7%)
• The L2 ecosystem did not economically surpass Alt-L1

The pattern is clear: Galaxy underestimated macroeconomic volatility but was correct on structural trends. For 2026 and 2027, the direction seems more predictable than the speed.