From Poker to Cryptocurrency: How Not to Fall into the Trap of Waiting Too Long

The fundamental question: Is the “play and earn” in cryptocurrencies still meaningful, or is it already a game for insiders?

Four billion dollars have flowed into Ethereum ETF. Bitcoin has attracted nearly 50 billion. Michael Saylor alone has invested over 40 billion. Robinhood has just announced its own EVM chain. Everything that crypto enthusiasts dreamed of a decade ago is now materializing – but not everyone is a winner.

Success always has two fathers, failure is an orphan

Bitcoin has become the second move by older generations on the stock exchange. Traditional finance is entering cryptocurrencies – that’s a fact. But when the financial structure becomes “official,” opportunities for smaller players diminish.

History shows a simple pattern: when technology shifts from “rebels” to “system,” early adopters profit, others wait. Then a dangerous psychological trap appears – those who still believe in the potential but didn’t believe early enough fall into a cognitive bias called sunk cost fallacy.

This well-known phenomenon means you stay with something only because you’ve already invested in it. A job you hate. A relationship that irritates you. Or – in this case – cryptocurrencies you keep waiting for.

The world of the cave and shadows on the wall

Plato was right. Prisoners in the cave see only shadows – they don’t know that outside the game there is reality. But since they spent years there, they confuse shadows with reality and remain.

Today, something similar is happening, only we are the prisoners – voluntarily. It’s not knowledge that keeps us, but years of work, education, reputation. The more time you’ve dedicated, the stronger the chain. Even when it’s clear that better options are elsewhere.

Four camps, eight variants

The way to know yourself is simple. You must honestly answer two questions:

First: what do you believe in?

• Green: Bitcoin, not altcoins
• Red: Altcoins and Ethereum, not Bitcoin
• Brown: Both
• White: Neither

Second: do you believe growth potential still exists?

• (a) Yes, worth the risk
• (b) No, we already missed it

This gives eight combinations. But only one should occupy all your attention and time.

If you are in field 2(a) – you believe in altcoins and see potential – then it makes sense to devote everything. For everyone else? Start dividing your time. Exit plans are not betrayal of your investments; they are intelligence.

Personal story: from 2(a) to 3(b)

This author was in camp 2(a) for most of 2015-2023. Today, he oscillates between 1(a), 3(a), and 3(b).

He discovered the path through poker. As a teenager, he discovered the game – calculating EV instead of listening to lessons, moving from penny bets to high limits. He earned, but over time, the game became just a way to make money, not a passion. Every day he worked harder to maintain his standard. He thought: “Just 2-3 more years and I’m done.” Ten years have passed.

Poker taught him one thing – risk management, emotionless valuation, emotional resilience. These skills proved more valuable than poker itself.

When in 2020 DeFi was truly tradable and profitable, he leveraged the fundamentals. This time, playing and earning more intelligently, because he didn’t bet all his money on one card.

Ethereum costs 2600 dollars – is that a lot?

An investor from 2015 earned between 2000 and 8600 times return. But in recent years, something has changed.

Even if you predicted Ethereum’s success perfectly – that ETF would attract billions, that Robinhood would use it, that Trump would change SEC regulations – since the ETF launch, you’ve still been trading at a loss or stagnation.

Why? Because investors are no longer amateurs learning and playing, earning along the way. They are algorithms, corporate giants, insiders. Opportunities have shifted to HOOD (Robinhood) stocks, not Ethereum.

Waiting is no longer a strategy

Now a critical point arises. Is patience, as Mippo suggested, really the way?

All the beautiful visions are coming true. Bitcoin ETF is a reality. Ethereum is becoming infrastructure for Robinhood. But when technology enters the mainstream, prices don’t automatically rise – the stocks of companies implementing it do.

If you truly want patience, you must be a very early investor or create projects yourself. For the rest? Patience means staying in the cave and watching shadows while the world is already busy with AI and robotics.

Last report for yourself

The essential question: which camp do you belong to? And do you really enjoy what you do?

Regardless of the answer, develop skills useful everywhere. If cryptocurrencies don’t work out, you’ll have a soft landing. If they do, you’ll be prepared.

The worst thing is to dedicate your whole life to something that no longer brings you joy – just because you once believed and invested.

The door of the sunk cost fallacy is never closed. It’s only your thoughts that imprison you. Sometimes, all it takes is to open them and walk out.

The world outside the cave awaits.