XRP faces technical consolidation as exchange-traded funds attract massive institutional capital

Price Stagnation Contrasts with Record Institutional Flows

The XRP token remains in a fragile territory around $2.04, experiencing a cumulative decline of 20.36% over the past twelve months. Despite the sustained pullback, the structural confidence in the asset remains intact among long-term investors. The current outlook reflects a clear disconnect: while institutional liquidity flows into North American Ripple spot ETFs, altcoins in general are going through a period of widespread weakness that hampers any immediate recovery momentum in prices.

XRP Spot ETFs Surpass $1 Billion in Active Management

Specialized Ripple ETFs in the United States have reached significant milestones, managing over $1 billion. This capital accumulation reflects the growing appetite of traditional investors for direct exposure to XRP. The favorable regulatory trajectory of the token and its clear positioning within the cross-border payments ecosystem facilitate this institutional access.

At the same time, blockchain data reveal a supply reduction phenomenon: approximately 750 million XRP have migrated out of exchange platforms in recent weeks. With only 1,500 million units available in these markets, the scarcity dynamic could intensify toward early 2026 if the withdrawal trend accelerates or if institutional contributions expand.

Technical Consolidation Precedes Potential Sharp Movement

From a technical analysis perspective, Ali Charts identifies that XRP is forming a triangle consolidation pattern. Such structures have historically preceded significant directional movements, with projections pointing to oscillations of 10% once the current balance is broken.

The critical support is located at $1.80. A breakdown below this level could lead the token toward $1.37. Conversely, an upward movement would require increased trading volume and signals breaking the current bearish structure, conditions that have not yet materialized on the charts.

Analyst Outlook: Lateral Range Until Macro Changes

Jake Kennis, senior researcher at Nansen, projects that XRP will remain in a sideways range in the short term. The analyst emphasizes that altcoins typically show relative weakness while Bitcoin does not establish a clear bottom or sustained stabilization.

Conditions for a significant change could emerge in the second half of 2026, supported by improvements in the macroeconomic environment and renewed market confidence. However, Kennis stresses that XRP’s next structural move will depend on concrete catalysts: expansion of flows into ETFs, real adoption in payment infrastructure, and increased participation of corporate capital, rather than short-term speculative impulses.

Valuation Scenarios: From Conservative to Optimistic

Price projections vary considerably depending on macro assumptions. Moderate risk estimates suggest XRP would stay in the $1.80–$1.90 range if no relevant catalysts emerge in the next quarter. More optimistic projections position the token between $3.00 and $4.00 or higher for the second half of 2026, assuming accelerated inflows into ETFs, maintained favorable regulatory clarity, and broader cryptocurrency market recovery.