## Long-term Distribution Strategy of Address Holders: 2025 May Be a Difficult Year, but BTC Will Reach $120,000-$150,000 by Mid-2026

According to Jocy, Co-founder of IOSG, the crypto market is experiencing an unprecedented BTC distribution cycle. Unlike the sudden sell-offs of previous years (2013, 2017, 2021), this time long-term address holders are executing large-scale sales plans, divided into three clear phases.

**Three Waves of Selling from Old Addresses**

From March 2024 to November 2025, long-term BTC holders are expected to sell approximately 1.4 million BTC (equivalent to $121.17 billion):

- First phase (late 2023 - early 2024): After ETF approvals, BTC rises from $25,000 to $73,000, triggering the first wave of sales
- Second phase (late 2024): With support from new policies, BTC approaches $100,000, leading to significant selling
- Third phase (2025): BTC stabilizes around $100,000, creating conditions for a re-accumulation wave

**Unprecedented Phenomenon: BTC Stays at the Peak**

A notable detail is that BTC has maintained high prices for an entire year — a phenomenon never recorded before. The amount of BTC with no movement for over two years has decreased by 1.6 million coins since early 2024 (representing $140 billion), indicating strong attraction from new capital flows.

**Opportunities Lie Behind Risks**

Although 2025 may be the "toughest year" for the market, investors can leverage three strategic periods:

- **Short-term (3-6 months)**: BTC will fluctuate between $87,000 and $95,000, a consolidation phase for current funds (BTC currently trading around $90.79K)
- **Medium-term (H1 2026)**: With support from policies and institutional capital, reaching $120,000-$150,000 becomes feasible
- **Long-term (H2 2026)**: The strong growth cycle will depend on political decisions and continued aggressive economic support measures

In summary, to succeed during this period, investors need to distinguish between short-term fluctuations in 2025 and the sustainable growth trajectory of BTC heading toward $120,000-$150,000 by mid-2026.