比特幣強勢下，以太坊醞釀逆襲：2026年ETH/BTC或升至0.063

Current Situation

As of mid-January 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at $90.79K, and Ethereum (ETH) at $3.12K. Against the backdrop of BTC continuously reaching new highs, the ETH/BTC trading pair instead shows a classic technical reversal signal—so is this a trap or an opportunity?

Inverse Head and Shoulders Bottom Pattern Suggests 80% Upside

From bi-weekly candlestick analysis, ETH/BTC is forming a standard inverse head and shoulders (IH&S) pattern, a common bullish reversal pattern often seen before the end of a long-term bear market.

The development of the pattern is as follows:

• Left shoulder: formed during late 2024 amid a weak phase
• Head: created a low near 0.0176 BTC in April 2025, followed by a sharp rebound
• Right shoulder: established a higher low in Q4 2025

The neckline is approximately at 0.0400 BTC, between the 50-period and 200-period exponential moving averages. Once a clear breakout above this zone occurs, the IH&S pattern will be confirmed, opening space for further upward movement.

Based on the pattern projection, ETH/BTC could rise to the 0.059–0.063 BTC range, representing an approximately 80% increase from current levels.

Will History Repeat? The 450% Parabolic Rise of 2020 Offers Insights

Between 2019 and 2020, ETH/BTC bottomed in a demand zone around 0.0160–0.0200 BTC, then initiated a parabolic ascent of up to 450%.

The current rebound trajectory is highly similar to that period—both started from a structural bottom and are gradually approaching initial resistance zones. If this fractal pattern continues, ETH/BTC could reach the Fibonacci target of 0.059 BTC before mid-2026, aligning with the breakout of the IH&S pattern.

This historical review is not destiny but can certainly inspire current market participants.

Long-term Downtrend Line Remains the Biggest Test

However, warning signals also exist.

Since 2017, a multi-year downtrend line has consistently suppressed ETH’s attempts to break through BTC. Currently, Ethereum bulls need to clearly break this critical resistance to declare the end of the long-term bear trend.

Potential Risk: If ETH/BTC faces rejection again at the trendline, the validity of the IH&S pattern could be undermined, and ETH/BTC might even fall back to the long-term support at 0.0175 BTC, which would significantly undermine market confidence.

Summary

Ethereum’s relative performance against Bitcoin in 2026 holds dual prospects. In an optimistic scenario, the inverse head and shoulders pattern combined with fractal resonance could push ETH/BTC to 0.063, offering an 80% upside; in a pessimistic scenario, the repeated resistance of the multi-year trendline threatens this outlook. Investors should closely monitor the key neckline at 0.0400 BTC as a critical indicator for confirming the pattern.