Crypto Forecast Today: Which macro data this week will determine Bitcoin & Altcoins

The current market situation presents a turning point for investors. With Bitcoin at $85,975, Ethereum at $2,799, and XRP just above the $2 mark, the sector is experiencing a phase of increased volatility. The Fear & Greed Index is at 19 – a value indicating extreme fear, reflecting the tense sentiment among market participants.

Why the next 48 hours are crucial for the crypto forecast

The key question is: will the trend lead to stabilization or further sell-offs? Analysts are focusing on specific data releases from the USA that could be decisive for the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy. Since Thanksgiving has shifted the regular calendar, the most important signals are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Producer prices and retail sales: Inflation in focus

On Tuesday, producer price data for September will be released. The previous month surprised with a decrease of –0.1 percent, but analysts now expect an increase of +0.3 percent. If this figure is exceeded, it could indicate rising production costs – a scenario that would force companies to raise prices and ultimately generate inflationary pressure. This would be negative for Bitcoin and altcoins, as it would reduce the likelihood of a rate cut in December.

Meanwhile, US retail sales, a barometer of American consumer spending power, are also due. In August, they showed surprisingly strong growth of +0.6 percent. A significantly weaker September figure could signal a slowdown in consumer activity – a risk factor for volatile asset classes like cryptocurrencies.

GDP and core inflation on Wednesday: The final catalyst

Wednesday brings two critical data points. The third quarter GDP has so far surprised with an increase of +3.8 percent. A significant decline would be seen as positive news for the crypto market, as it would increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Strong growth, on the other hand, could reinforce expectations of rising rates.

At the same time, the PCE core inflation data will be released – the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. Analysts expect another +0.2 percent. A higher figure would dampen risk appetite, while a lower one could support the Fed’s recently cautious optimistic stance.

Institutional demand and whales: Signals from the industry

Beyond the macroeconomic context, important developments are also occurring within the crypto sector. After significant net outflows in mid-November, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a strong recovery on Friday with an inflow of +$238.4 million. Ethereum ETFs also recovered with +$55.7 million – an important sign that institutional investors have not completely turned away.

However, the behavior of larger addresses remains problematic. Many whales are reducing their positions, increasing downward pressure. A return to accumulation could quickly bring relief in the currently thin market environment – but so far, this signal is missing.

Conclusion: The crypto forecast for the coming days

Bitcoin and altcoins are at a critical crossroads. Sentiment is tense, volumes are thin, and the key impulses are coming from the USA. Whether the market stabilizes or corrects further in the next 48 hours will largely depend on US data. Currently, analysts are deliberately cautious in their forecasts – a sign of the uncertainty currently shaping the industry. Investors should closely monitor the releases and adjust their positions accordingly.