BTC fluctuates around $90K, traders are caught between fear and hope ahead of the $14 billion options expiration.

The Bitcoin market is entering a state of instability as the expiration date for the $14 billion BTC options approaching this Friday. The price fluctuations of BTC around $90K reflect intense tension between long-term bullish expectations and concerns over worsening economic conditions.

The options structure highlights growing concerns

As of November 28th, the total open interest for call options ( reached 104,300 BTC, equivalent to $9.12 billion. However, a concerning point is that 84% of these call contracts are set at $91,000 or higher. With Bitcoin’s current price around $90.79K, most of these call options will expire worthless unless there is a strong rally in the coming days.

Conversely, the open interest for put options ) totals 67,877 BTC, valued at $5.92 billion. These put positions seem more aligned with the current market state, with 31% protected at $84,500 or lower. This disparity indicates that traders are primarily hedging for further downside scenarios.

Poor economic data worsens market sentiment

Investor sentiment has been heavily impacted by a series of disappointing economic data. The ADP payroll processing company reported that US private companies cut an average of 13,500 jobs per week over the past four weeks. This suggests a significant weakening in the US labor market.

Additionally, the US Conference Board announced that consumer confidence fell to 88.7 in November, down sharply from 95.5 the previous month. Expectations for income and business activity also declined, remaining below the neutral threshold of 80% for the tenth consecutive month.

Stimulative signals from monetary policy

Despite weakening economic data, there is hope that the Federal Reserve may implement a more accommodative monetary policy. Market reactions support this: gold prices increased by 1.2%, and the Russell 2000 index of small-cap companies rose by 1.9%, as traders anticipate additional liquidity measures to stabilize the economy.

Recently, US President Donald Trump signed the “Genesis Mission” executive order to promote AI development and mitigate related risks. This policy has also been interpreted as a positive signal for risk markets in general.

Traders still hold onto bullish hopes

Despite recent difficulties, Bitcoin traders have significantly increased their year-end call option positions in the $100,000 to $112,000 range over the past 48 hours. This indicates that medium-term optimism remains, even as the current price fluctuates at lower levels.

Five possible scenarios

Based on current price trends, here are the likely scenarios for the November options expiration:

If Bitcoin remains trading between $85,000 and $87,000, the net outcome will favor the put side with a $1.9 billion loss for the longs. The range between $87,001 and $88,000 will be similar, though the downside tilt will decrease to $800 million.

The $88,001 to $89,000 range is considered a balance point, where call and put outcomes are roughly equal.

If the price rises to around $89,001 to $90,000, the result begins to favor the call side with $600 million. And if Bitcoin recovers strongly to the $90,001 to $92,000 zone, the advantage will fully shift to the buyers, with a net profit of $3.8 billion.

Market sentiment remains heavily influenced by macro factors

In summary, the current situation suggests that BTC price fluctuations will continue to be heavily affected by macroeconomic conditions and expectations of stimulus measures from central banks. It may still be too early to dismiss bullish strategies entirely, but short-term risks over the next 48 hours are very real and warrant close monitoring.