Bitcoin under pressure: when whales start selling, what to expect?

Long-term Bitcoin investors are gradually reducing their exposure, signaling a shift in market sentiment. On-chain data reveal an interesting dynamic: the assets held by long-term holders (those who hold positions for at least 155 days) have fallen to 71.92% — the lowest level since April — after reaching a peak of 76% in July.

When accumulators turn into sellers

According to algorithmic analysis of Glassnode data, long-term holders switch from accumulators to sellers when bearish movement signals emerge. Recent history offers an interesting parallel: in April, Bitcoin’s price hit $74,000, prompting these sophisticated investors to buy aggressively. Their share rose to 76% in July, coinciding with a 65% rally that pushed the price up to $123,000.

Today, the landscape is reversed. On November 26, long-term holders liquidated 1.1 million Bitcoin — the second-largest daily disinvestment movement in blockchain history. Over the past 30 days, accumulated positions have been reduced by a total of 761,000 Bitcoin, with whales selling over $2.78 billion during this period.

The technical picture complicates: critical supports at risk

With Bitcoin falling to 90.83K, the technical picture shows signs of structural weakness. The 50-week moving average and the annual open price at $93,300 have been broken, while the bearish flag formation was confirmed when the price dropped below $92,000.

The immediate support zone below extends between the local low of $83,800 (recorded on December 1) and the multi-month low of $80,500 (touched on November 21). If this zone gives way, technical trading algorithms target the bearish flag’s objective at $68,500, coinciding with the 200-week moving average — representing a potential 20% decline from the current level.

Analysts divided: where does consensus converge?

Market experts are monitoring a sequence of progressive supports. The 100-week exponential moving average stands at $85,500, followed by critical on-chain levels at $83,800 (average ETF position price) and $81,200 (weighted average cost). Testing the $80,000 mark could be the next decisive node for market direction.

Contemporary technical indicators — with the 20-day exponential moving average trending downward and the RSI in bearish territory — suggest sellers dominate in the short term. However, historically, massive reductions by long-term holders have preceded trend reversals in previous cycles (2017, 2021), indicating that the market may be in a distribution phase ahead of larger movements in the coming months.