#ETH

ETH Technical Outlook: Ethereum Attempts Base Formation After Prolonged Corrective Decline

Ethereum remains within a broader corrective structure after facing repeated rejection from the $4,450–$4,950 macro supply zone, where price peaked near the 0.786–1.0 Fibonacci levels. This area marked a clear distribution phase, ending the previous bullish expansion and initiating a sustained multi-month decline.

The bearish move accelerated once ETH lost the $4,065–$3,790 region (0.618–0.5 Fib), flipping this zone into a major resistance area and confirming a bearish structural shift.

EMA Structure (Bearish With Early Recovery Signs)

20 EMA – $3,083
50 EMA – $3,126
100 EMA – $3,290
200 EMA – $3,342

ETH continues to trade below the 100 & 200 EMA, keeping the broader trend bearish. However, price has reclaimed the 20 & 50 EMA, signaling short-term recovery momentum. The $3,290–$3,340 zone remains a critical dynamic resistance area, reinforced by EMA and horizontal structure confluence.

Fibonacci & Price Structure

1 Fib: $4,956
0.786 Fib: $4,456
0.618 Fib: $4,065
0.5 Fib: $3,790
0.382 Fib: $3,514
0.236 Fib: $3,174
Fib 0: $2,623

ETH is consolidating above the $2,900–$3,050 demand zone, following a strong defense of the $2,623 Fib 0 level, where buyers previously stepped in aggressively. Recent price action shows higher lows, suggesting a base-building process and increasing probability of a relief rally.

A sustained move above $3,175 (0.236 Fib) opens upside toward $3,500–$3,790, where heavy Fibonacci and EMA confluence resistance exists. A meaningful structural shift would require acceptance above $3,790 (0.5 Fib).

RSI Momentum

RSI (14): 53

RSI has reclaimed the neutral zone, indicating improving momentum and increasing buyer participation. While this supports further upside attempts, RSI also suggests ETH is approaching near-term resistance zones, where consolidation is likely.

📊 Key Levels

Resistance

$3,175 (0.236 Fib)
$3,290–$3,340 (100 & 200 EMA)
$3,514 (0.382 Fib)
$3,790 (0.5 Fib)

Support

$3,050–$2,950 (short-term support)
$2,900–$2,750 (major demand zone)
$2,623 (Fib 0)

📌 Summary

Ethereum is showing early recovery signs after defending a key long-term demand zone. While short-term momentum has turned positive, the broader structure remains corrective unless ETH can reclaim the $3,500–$3,790 resistance zone with strength. Failure to hold above the $3,050–$2,900 region would expose ETH to renewed downside pressure toward the $2,623 level.
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