2026: the year when practicality beats speculation according to CoinShares

If 2025 marked the turning point in the narrative of digital assets, 2026 will be the true watershed between the speculative past and the constructive future. This is the core of CoinShares’ analysis, the European asset management giant with over $6 billion under management, which in its 77-page report “2026: The Year of Practicality” paints a very different picture from the doomsday projections of those talking about the end of the world in 2026.

Bitcoin towards new highs: three possible scenarios

The question every investor asks is simple: where will bitcoin go? CoinShares proposes three divergent trajectories based on macroeconomic evolution:

The bullish scenario: if the global economy manages to combine with positive surprises on productivity, bitcoin could surpass $150,000. It’s the scenario of the perfect soft landing.

The central scenario: in a context of slow expansion and fragile growth, the price would remain between $110,000 and $140,000. This is the most probable path given persistent inflation and Federal Reserve caution.

The recession scenario: in the worst case, with recession or stagflation – the real end of the world in 2026 for the bulls – bitcoin could fall between $70,000 and $100,000. Not an unrealistic scenario but one that would require shocks on multiple fronts.

The key element: the Federal Reserve will continue to proceed cautiously with rate cuts, still recalling the inflation of 2022. The target rate could fall toward 3%, but without haste.

From dollar erosion to digital asset dominance

A often overlooked but extraordinarily significant data point: the share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has plummeted from 70% in 2000 to about 50% today. Central banks in emerging markets are actively diversifying, increasing gold, renminbi, and more.

This creates a huge structural space for bitcoin as a sovereign reserve asset. It’s no longer just a speculative narrative; it’s a geopolitical and economic necessity. In 2026, this diversification dynamic is expected to accelerate further, providing a crucial support independent of retail sentiment cycles.

The mainstreaming of bitcoin in the USA: real but slow progress

2025 has already achieved various historic milestones: approval of spot ETFs, formation of options markets, removal of pension fund restrictions, fair value accounting for companies. The US government has even classified bitcoin as a strategic reserve.

But there’s a big but: actual institutional adoption is still hampered by the slowness of traditional processes. Asset managers, 401(k) plan providers, corporate compliance teams – all are still adapting.

What do we expect in 2026? At least four major brokerage firms will open to bitcoin ETF setups. At least one large pension provider will allow direct allocation. Two S&P 500 companies will hold bitcoin on their balance sheets. Two major custodians will offer direct deposit services.

These are small but cumulative steps. Institutional adoption is not a wave; it’s a tide rising slowly but inexorably.

The Strategy risk and corporate bitcoin concentration

Here we reach a sensitive point: listed companies have accumulated bitcoin from 266,000 units to over 1 million in just one or two years. The total value has gone from $11.7 billion to $90.7 billion.

The problem? Strategy accounts for 61% of these holdings. It’s a dangerous concentration. If Strategy faces difficulties refinancing its obligations (the annual cash flow is around $680 million), it could be forced to sell part of its bitcoin. This could trigger a cascade of sales and amplify the drawdown.

The critical date is September 2028, when the nearest obligations mature. If by then the market has not recovered, the risk of a pressure sell-off becomes tangible.

Hybrid finance is no longer science fiction

Stablecoins have now surpassed $300 billion in market capitalization. Ethereum hosts the largest share, but Solana is growing more aggressively. Monthly DEX volume has exceeded $600 billion. On Solana alone, $40 billion are moved daily.

Tokenized real-world assets? They have grown from $15 billion to $35 billion in a few months. Tokenized private credit and US government bonds are the fastest-growing categories. Gold tokens have surpassed $1.3 billion. JPMorgan launched its JPMD on Base. Blackrock has significantly expanded its BUIDL fund.

This is no longer experimentation. It’s infrastructure that works.

Tokens are becoming quasi-equity

A paradigm shift is happening in DeFi protocols: more and more generate hundreds of millions in annual revenue and redistribute it directly to token holders. Hyperliquid uses 99% of its revenue for daily token buybacks. Uniswap and Lido have introduced similar mechanisms.

This means one thing: tokens are transforming from purely speculative assets to instruments similar to equities. They represent claims on cash flows of a network, not just betting chips.

Ethereum vs Solana: the megatrend of differentiation

Ethereum is pursuing scalability through rollups. Layer-2 has gone from 200 to 4,800 transactions per second in a year. It has become the institutional infrastructure of choice: Blackrock’s BUIDL and JPMorgan’s JPMD run on Ethereum.

Solana represents the opposite paradigm: very high performance through a highly optimized monolithic architecture. Stablecoins on Solana have grown from $1.8 billion to $12 billion. Its spot ETF launched on October 28 has already raised $382 million in net flows. RWA projects are accelerating on the network.

Other L1s like Sui, Aptos, Sei, and Hyperliquid compete through technical differentiation. Hyperliquid generates over a third of blockchain revenue solely from derivatives.

The winner? Probably everyone. Fragmentation is destined to persist because they serve different purposes.

Mining transforms into high-performance data centers

In 2025, listed miners added 110 EH/s of computing power. But here’s the real change: they announced HPC (High Performance Computing) contracts worth $65 billion.

By the end of 2026, revenue share from bitcoin mining will fall from 85% to less than 20%. Operating margins of HPC activities reach 80-90%.

The mining of the future will be dominated by integrated ASIC chip producers, scalable modular operations, intermittently co-managed mining with HPC, and even mining directly managed by sovereign states.

Predictive markets soar beyond expectations

During the 2024 US presidential elections, Polymarket surpassed $800 million in weekly volume. Predictive accuracy? Confirmed: events with a 60% probability occurred about 60% of the time.

By October 2025, ICE invested up to $2 billion strategically in Polymarket. It’s the formal recognition of traditional finance toward this asset class.

In 2026, weekly volume is expected to surpass $2 billion. The market is about to explode.

Venture capital: $18.8 billion in 2025

Crypto VC already raised $18.8 billion in 2025 alone, surpassing the $16.5 billion of all 2024. Led by mega-deals: Polymarket received $2 billion, Stripe’s Tempo $500 million, Kalshi $300 million.

In 2026, four trends will dominate: RWA tokenization (SPAC of Securitize, $50 million Series A of Agora), AI-crypto fusion (autonomous agents, natural language trading), decentralized angel investing platforms (Echo was acquired by Coinbase for $375 million), bitcoin infrastructure (Layer-2, Lightning Network).

The regulatory landscape finally consolidates

The EU has the most comprehensive framework in the world with MiCA, covering issuance, custody, trading, and stablecoins. 2025 showed some coordination limits, but it’s already the gold standard.

The US has approved the GENIUS Act for stablecoins and is regaining momentum in capital markets. Fragmentation among SEC, CFTC, and Federal Reserve remains, but the foundations are now clear.

Asia is converging toward Basel III standards with a risk-based approach. Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore are building a coherent regulatory framework.

Conclusion: from marginality to mainstream

2026 will not be the year of the end of the world for digital assets; it will be the year of their definitive normalization. From speculation to utility. From fragmentation to integration with the traditional financial system.

Stablecoins will become the fuel for institutional payments. Tokenization will transform entire segments of the financial market. Predictive markets will become standard pricing tools. Bitcoin will settle in asset managers’ offices and corporate balance sheets.

Risks remain: bitcoin concentration at Strategy, fragile global economic balance, venture capital flow volatility. But growth opportunities are now extraordinary and visible to anyone.

The era of pure speculation is ending. Welcome to the era of practicality.