Weekly Market Pulse (Jan 4) | Macro Headwinds Loom as BTC Consolidates Near $90K; Caution Prevails Amid Mixed Derivative Signals

Economic Calendar Dominates This Week

Major catalysts are set to reshape risk sentiment in the coming days. The Federal Reserve calendar features multiple speakers, with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin both set to take the podium early in the week. However, the real market-mover arrives Friday: the December nonfarm payrolls report will reveal employment trends that could shift rate expectations heading into Q1 2026.

Beyond Fed speakers, traders should monitor the CES 2026 tech conference (January 6–9 in Las Vegas), which often influences risk appetite. Additional data points include ADP employment figures, jobless claims, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index—all scheduled throughout the week.

Geopolitical tensions also merit attention. Venezuela’s situation has deteriorated significantly, adding another layer of uncertainty to global macro dynamics.

Market Structure Sends Mixed Signals at $90K Barrier

Bitcoin has recovered to $90,840, yet market internals reveal a more nuanced picture than headline prices suggest. Analysts at Glassnode have flagged characteristics consistent with a prolonged bear market structure, cautioning against interpreting the rebound as a definitive trend shift.

The $91,000 level has emerged as a critical watershed. Below this threshold, substantial long liquidations could cascade into accelerated selling and heightened volatility. Conversely, breaking above it may trigger a short squeeze, potentially driving rapid rallies. This dynamic suggests the market remains range-bound rather than directionally committed.

Over the past 24 hours, liquidations totaled $179 million across derivatives markets ($128M in shorts), with Bitcoin accounting for approximately $58 million and Ethereum around $30 million. Spot ETF flows tell another story: net inflows reached $42 million despite outflows of $214 million, indicating selective accumulation rather than broad conviction.

Altcoins in Focus; Whale Activity Intensifies

LIT (Lighter) continues attracting whale capital. A major whale deposited another 2 million USDC to increase LIT holdings, bringing five-day purchases to $8.03 million as the token trades near $2.44. Meanwhile, Justin Sun has reportedly divested approximately $200,000 worth of LIT, currently maintaining a position of 13.23 million tokens.

ZEC (ZCash) saw substantial whale activity yesterday when a large holder moved 74,002 tokens (valued at $35.75 million) onto major exchanges—a potential signal of selling pressure or portfolio rebalancing at current levels around $404.66.

Ethereum also experienced notable whale repositioning, with holders withdrawing 20,000 ETH ($62.3 million) from centralized exchanges. Simultaneously, Ethereum’s treasury landscape continues evolving, with Quantum Solutions disclosing its holdings have grown to approximately 5,418 ETH. Staking dynamics show Bitmine’s additional deposits have extended the validator queue waiting period to 17 days.

HNT (Helium) and JUP (Jupiter) face diverging narratives. Helium’s founder announced that token buybacks will be suspended due to weak market response (HNT trading at $1.37). Jupiter’s co-founder has opened discussions with the community about potentially halting JUP buybacks as well (JUP at $0.21).

Venture Capital and Industry Momentum Accelerate

Crypto venture funding surged dramatically in 2025. Total venture capital investment reached $49.75 billion—a 433.2% increase compared to 2024. While the number of projects declined 42.1% to 898, this concentration signals that capital is flowing disproportionately toward high-potential, large-scale initiatives rather than fragmented bets.

US spot crypto ETFs have achieved a remarkable milestone: cumulative trading volume has surpassed $2 trillion. This doubling of volume was achieved in half the timeframe of the previous threshold, demonstrating accelerating institutional adoption and retail participation.

The convergence of macro uncertainty, regulatory clarity improvements, and institutional infrastructure buildout suggests 2026 will see continued M&A and IPO activity within crypto and adjacent industries. Tech giants SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are reportedly planning public debuts this year—potentially creating the largest listing wave in recent history and reshaping capital market dynamics.

DeFi and Infrastructure Developments

Uniswap, Jupiter, and Meteora each generated over $1 billion in total fee revenue during 2025, cementing their positions as dominant liquidity aggregators and trading venues.

Ethereum’s roadmap continues progressing. Vitalik outlined how ZK-EVM and PeerDAS upgrades will fundamentally transform Ethereum into a high-performance decentralized network capable of handling vastly increased transaction throughput.

Trust Wallet has rolled out user verification codes to streamline compensation processes, reinforcing its commitment to enhanced security and user recovery options.

Bitcoin Premium Index Signals Persistent Caution

A notable metric deserves attention: Bitcoin’s premium index has remained negative for 20 consecutive days, currently hovering at -0.0413%. This sustained negative premium (where perpetual futures trade below spot prices) historically signals reduced retail enthusiasm and suggests professional traders maintain defensive positioning.

Outlook: Opportunity Within Caution

This week’s macro calendar and ongoing whale repositioning create both risk and opportunity. While BTC’s $90K recovery appears constructive, the warning signs from derivatives markets, ETF flows, and the persistent negative premium suggest accumulation rather than explosive breakout conditions.

Traders should treat $91,000 as a true inflection point and monitor Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report closely—employment data remains the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and could reignite volatility across both macro and crypto markets.

Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or trading recommendations.