Bitcoin Stands at Crossroads: Will Recent Lows Hold or Fresh Bottoms Await Before Next Rally?

Market sentiment around Bitcoin has fractured into two competing camps as BTC trades in the $90K region following its late-2025 run-up to $126K. The debate has intensified regarding whether the recent pullback represents a temporary correction within a longer uptrend, or the opening salvo of a sustained bear phase that could drive prices significantly lower before any meaningful recovery takes hold.

The Case for Further Downside: Bearish Technical Signals Emerging

A growing contingent of technical analysts points to concerning warning signs on the monthly charts. They identify an expanding diagonal pattern formation coupled with bearish MACD divergence, suggesting the market has entered a topping phase rather than a bottoming phase. According to this bearish interpretation, the blow-off top phase could still push prices toward the $154,000 range before a catastrophic correction unfolds. These analysts warn that if price patterns similar to previous bear markets play out, Bitcoin could ultimately target the $40,000 to $60,000 range over the coming months. Some take an even more extreme stance, proposing technical minimums could reach into the low thousands.

The 40-day test becomes critical in this context. Historical analysis suggests that whenever Bitcoin has bottomed but subsequently made fresh lows without first breaking the downtrend, it has occurred within a maximum 35-day window. Having now extended beyond this timeframe at 40 days, bulls argue this breaks the bearish pattern, while bears counter that a longer-cycle breakdown remains possible, with a specific $60,000-$70,000 zone identified as the next key support level to defend.

Bullish Conviction: The Super Cycle Framework

On the opposite side stands the bullish contingent, who reference frameworks like Raoul Pal’s 5-year super cycle thesis to argue that macro conditions remain supportive for extended upside. These analysts maintain that Bitcoin has likely already bottomed and should now enter a sustained rally phase that reclaims the previous all-time high territory before establishing new peaks well above current levels.

Their case rests on historical precedent—the argument that Bitcoin’s bottoming patterns, when examined across a decade of price action, rarely produce new lows after the initial low without first breaking above the existing downtrend. By this measure, the 40-day holding period suggests price should now rally upward rather than probe lower.

The Path Forward: Technical vs. Macro Conviction

The resolution of this debate hinges on whether Bitcoin’s current price action validates the bearish technical setup or confirms the bullish recovery thesis. A push above recent resistance levels would signal the beginning of the anticipated super cycle rally, while a breakdown through key support zones would validate the bearish narrative of further capitulation ahead.

For traders and investors, the stakes center on whether December 2025 and early January 2026 price action marked the true washout or merely a waypoint in a longer correction. The next critical test will arrive as Bitcoin either holds above current support levels and launches toward new all-time highs, or surrenders and moves toward the $60,000-$70,000 price zones that bear market proponents have flagged as likely downside targets.

Current market data shows Bitcoin trading at $90.76K with a 24-hour change of -0.02%, keeping the asset well above the most severe bearish targets while still significantly below its $126.08K recent high—leaving the question of whether this represents a temporary rest or the calm before another storm.