Short-term sprint to $98,000, long-term undercurrents — Willy Woo's contradictory Bitcoin forecast

Crypto analyst Willy Woo’s recent views are a bit sobering: Bitcoin may see a strong breakout in the short term (late January to February) above $98,000-$100,000, but he remains bearish for the entire 2026. This contradiction between short-term optimism and long-term pessimism actually reflects the core issue in the current Bitcoin market—liquidity crunch.

Why the Short Term Looks Bullish

Woo’s bullish logic is based on three key observations:

Continuous increase in investor capital inflows

According to Woo’s internal investor capital flow model, Bitcoin has been steadily strengthening since hitting bottom on December 24, 2025. This signal is significant because prices typically take 2-3 weeks to fully reflect changes in capital flow. In other words, the current price rise may just be the beginning.

Futures liquidity is recovering

Derivatives market liquidity, which had been dormant for months, is now rebounding, reminiscent of mid-2021. That liquidity revival ultimately led to the second top of the previous cycle. This historical similarity suggests the market may be brewing a larger rebound.

Key price levels are about to be tested

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $90,472, still some distance from the resistance zone of $98,000-$100,000. If this level is broken, the next point to watch is the performance at the all-time high (ATH).

Why the Long Term Is Bearish

But Woo’s bearish logic is equally cautionary:

Long-term decline in liquidity relative momentum

Since January 2025, liquidity relative to price momentum has been weakening. This means that although prices are rising, the capital inflow supporting this increase is relatively insufficient. As Woo puts it, “We are now in the final stage of a hot zone, where momentum lacks enough liquidity support.”

Bear market not confirmed yet, but risks are accumulating

Woo emphasizes that the true confirmation signal of a bear market is a sustained outflow of Bitcoin funds, which is a lagging indicator at the cycle top. Currently, this signal has not appeared, but that doesn’t mean there is no risk—on the contrary, it indicates the market is at a delicate balance point.

The only condition to change the outlook

Woo explicitly states that if a large influx of spot (long-term) liquidity occurs in the coming months, breaking the downward trend in liquidity, his view will change. Essentially, whether the short-term rebound can extend into a long-term uptrend depends on whether new incremental funds enter the market.

Can Policy Favorability Change the Situation?

Interestingly, some potential catalysts are suggested by related news:

• Japan Tax Reform: Japan plans to classify Bitcoin as a financial product in April 2026, reducing the marginal income tax rate from 43-55% to 20%. This could significantly boost retail investors’ buying motivation and bring in incremental capital.

• Trump Policy: Former US President Trump proposes setting a cap of 10% on credit card interest rates (effective January 20, 2026), which may limit low-credit-score users from accessing traditional credit, pushing them toward assets like Bitcoin.

If these policies are implemented and produce the expected effects, they could be the source of the “large influx of spot liquidity” Woo mentioned.

Summary

Willy Woo’s analysis essentially points to a reality: Bitcoin may have a rebound opportunity in the short term, but whether this rebound evolves into a long-term uptrend depends on whether sustained incremental capital flows in. Currently, the capital inflow is insufficient to break the macro trend of relative liquidity decline.

What does this mean for investors? It suggests that there may be trading opportunities in the short term (especially around the key level of $98,000-$100,000), but long-term holdings should be more cautious. Policy catalysts (Japan tax reform, Trump credit policy) could be variables that change the game, but need time to verify. The key is to continuously monitor the quality and scale of capital inflows—whether they are short-term speculative funds or long-term allocations, which will ultimately determine Bitcoin’s trajectory.